UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch will be the focus of this installment of the North-South Position as CageCraze.com staff writers Brian Hemminger and Chad Cunningham preview the main card fights and offer their predictions on how each bout will turn out.  The main event of this card, which is taking place down under in Australia will be a welterweight showdown between former lightweight and welterweight champion “The Prodigy” BJ Penn and former welterweight title challenger Jon Fitch.

Also on the main card is a grudge match between middleweight contenders Michael Bisping and Jorge Rivera.  Rivera has stepped up the trash talk this past week and Bisping appears to have taken offense.

Hometown favorite George Sotiropoulos will bring his 7 fight win streak in the UFC to the cage against fellow contender Dennis Siver in a battle to remain on top of the lightweight division.  In other main card action, Chris “Lights Out” Lytle will battle injury replacement Brian Ebersole in welterweight action and Ultimate Fighter season 11 veterans Kyle Noke and Chris Camozzi will do battle in the middleweight division.

Chad again defeated Brian two weeks ago so once again Chad has chosen the punishments for Brian. The first punishment is that Brian will have to name his first child “Baby Jay Penn Hemminger.” The second punishment will be that Brian will have to find a way to reference a line from “Down Under” by Men at Work in all of his predictions below. Please read below to see how the vagabond from Toledo accomplishes that task:

BJ Penn vs Jon Fitch

(Chad) I am going to go with Jon Fitch in this one, hands down. I do not want to see BJ Penn vs GSP III. Say what you want about the style of Jon Fitch, he will get it done by outworking BJ Penn for three rounds. Fitch will get BJ to the mat early in the fight and punish him with his grueling brand of “guard-and-pound.” I am tired of waiting for the “old” BJ Penn to come back around. Penn looked great against Matt Hughes but we will just have to see how Penn’s cardio holds up to being held down and beaten for three rounds by Jon Fitch. Not mincing words with this one, Fitch by unanimous decision.

(Brian) The smart choice here is Jon Fitch.  He has imposed his will on every opponent he’s ever faced in the UFC sans Georges St. Pierre with his wrestling and top control.  They even invented a new MMA verb, “Fitching”, for when an opponent is being dominated in the cage but not finished.  Fitch wins decisively every time, but his last eight fights have gone to decision.  That’s one of the reasons he hasn’t been given a rematch for the title.  BJ Penn is tough as nails, and he showed his power in his last fight, a 23 second knockout of former welterweight champ Matt Hughes in Detroit.  He has the jiu jitsu skills to survive against Fitch on the ground and he has a granite chin, maybe even a head full of zombie. Penn showed he can be controlled by bigger stronger wrestlers in the past and I’m going with Fitch here by unanimous decision.

Michael Bisping vs Jorge Rivera

(Brian) On paper, this fight is 100% going Michael Bisping’s way.  Jorge Rivera is older, has worse wrestling, grappling and he’s slower than Bisping.  But Rivera does hold the power advantage, and possibly a striking advantage but that’s not guaranteed.  Michael Bisping loves to stick and move, occasionally mixing in takedowns and ground and pound.  Rivera has tried to get into Bisping’s head with increasingly silly youtube videos that mock the British MMA star.  They appear to be working as Bisping seemed riled up at the press conference and the weigh-ins this week.  If Bisping loses his composure in the cage, Rivera has a great chance of catching him and knocking him out, screaming “Can’t you hear the thunder?” in the process.  I have a gut feeling though, that Bisping will stick to the gameplan and even possibly incorporate some big ground and pound to take away a decision against “The Conquistador.”

(Chad) What to do, what to do? I want Rivera to take this one, and I think he can, but this is a matchup that may play right into Bisping’s hands. If Bisping can stay elusive he can avoid Rivera’s power and turn this into an ugly scrap like he has done so many times before. Rivera definitely has the striking advantage and we have already seen Bisping get “Bisping-ed” by Rivera at the UFC 127 presser. I see Bisping coming into this fight trying to out-strike Rivera and paying for it. I think that Rivera will hurt Bisping on the feet early, but Bisping will hold on until late in the second round. Rivera silences Bisping, for now, with a second round TKO.

George Sotiropoulos vs Dennis Siver

(Brian) George Sotiropoulos has been living in the land down under for quite some time now.  The native Australian is on one of the biggest hotstreaks in the UFC and is currently riding a seven fight win streak in the promotion.  Sotiropoulos has some of the best grappling in the lightweight division and improving striking.  He’ll need all of it against Siver.  Siver, who hails from Germany is a compact lightweight with excellent kickboxing skills.  No one can forget his two fights in ’09 that he finished via spinning back kick to the liver/ribs.  While Siver is dangerous on his feet, he’s also got an underrated submission game.  The purple belt in BJJ has more wins by submission (9) than by knockout (5) including his submission of the night performance against Andre Winner at UFC 122.  Regardless, I think Sotiropoulos controls Siver with his reach and top control to secure a decision victory.

(Chad) I cannot and will not pick against Sotiropoulos fighting in Australia. He has never lost in the UFC and he will not lose this fight either. Sotiropoulos has Siver beat on the ground so Siver’s best chance is to keep this fight standing and look for big shots. I see Sotiropoulos getting this fight to the ground and finishing Siver with a Kimura in round two.

Chris Lytle vs Brian Ebersole

(Brian) I was very disappointed when Carlos Condit dropped out of this fight with injury.  Lytle/Condit had “Fight of the Year” written all over it.  Ebersole is a talented replacement though.  While he doesn’t come from the land down under, Ebersole is a transplant to Australia.  The native midwestern fighter has fought in Australia in 14 of his last 16 bouts, and has reeled off an impressive seven straight.  Lytle is on a win streak as well, having won four straight in the UFC including getting revenge against Matt Serra in his last fight at UFC 119.  Lytle is a veteran who has seemed to put it together recently and I don’t think the injury replacement Ebersole will have much of an answer for that.  I’m going with Lytle by submission in the 2nd round.

(Chad) Ebersole is a late replacement for Carlos Condit and he has the unfortunate task of facing Chris Lytle on short notice. Chris Lytle is always going to put on an exciting fight and I forsee this being no different. Chris Lytle is on a four-fight run in the UFC and I think he notches his fifth win in a row by overwhelming Ebersole. I think that Ebersole’s experience will allow him to make this an entertaining fight but Chris Lytle will win all three rounds on his way to a unanimous decision.

Kyle Noke vs Chris Camozzi

(Brian) Noke and Camozzi are both veterans of season 11 of The Ultimate Fighter.  Each man performed admirably on the show and has gone 2-0 in the promotion since the season finished.  This will be a big test to find out which will make it to the next level.  Noke will have the homefield advantage hailing from Australia while Camozzi is a native of the land of plenty, the US.  Each man has something to prove but I think at some point, Noke will take control of the fight.  He’ll land a big shot and scream “you better run, you better take cover” and eventually score a TKO victory in the end of the first round.

(Chad) These two fighters really need to prove something in this fight. Neither one of them are known for their explosive striking skills but Kyle Noke comes into the fight having finished three of his last four opponents. Camozzi enters this bout after defeating Dongi Yang via a split decision in which many thought he lost. I think that Kyle Noke will be able to do well against Camozzi when the fight goes to the ground, and it will. Kyle Noke via submission late in round three.

UFC 119 Prediction Hangover

Your boy is up for the second card in a row! I was correct in 3 of my 5 predictions, losing one via split decision, and losing another one that Yahoo Sports had scored 29-28 for my pick. So I was damn close at being 5 of 5. Of course, close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. And I’m not sure about horseshoes, I’ve never been that bored to play it. If you had bet one billion dollars on each of my picks, you would have won 1.22 billion dollars. You’re welcome.

Melvin Guillard vs Jeremy Stephens

I had picked Stephens in this fight. It was definetly a close fight, with Guillard winning a split decision. I still believe betting Stephens as an underdog in this toss up fight was a good decision. You win some, you lose some, and sometimes the judges cost me money.

Evan Dunham vs Sean Sherk

I won this one on Sherk via split decision. Apparently the fans did not like the decision and agreed with the minority judge. Exposing a man’s skull in the first round doesn’t factor into their judging perhaps, but it did the officials.

Chris Lytle vs Matt Serra

I was surprised this fight didn’t win the second Fight of the Night prize instead of Sherk vs Dunham. Sherk and Dunham put on a good show, but I really enjoyed watching these two guys going toe to toe like they did. It also has the highlight of the night for me – if you still got it on the DVR, look up 4:30 of round 2 and watch Lytle knock out one of Serra’s teeth with an uppercut. Pretty sweet. I was right about something else in this fight, not just Lytle as a winner. Serra needs to drop to lightweight. Watch how Lytle has to bend over at the waist to be on his level. Looks like he’s fighting a hobbit. Love ya Serra, you got the heart of a lion and head of a statue, but fight at lightweight dude.

Rogerio Noguiera vs Ryan Bader

Well I lost this one. I picked Noguiera but Bader’s boxing was just as good, and his wrestling proved too much. My only real saving grace was Yahoo Sports scoring it 29-28 for Noguiera, so at least some believed it was at least close and I don’t regret my betting decision.

Frank Mir vs Mirko Cro Cop

Ugh what a disaster of a main event. Have you ever been so disappointed in a main event that ended in a knockout? Makes me worry that MMA may be going in boxing’s direction of a decision every major fight because the fighters are so cautious. Machida’s method is catching on I’m afraid. Hopefully I’m wrong.

Thanks for reading! I’ll be back for UFC 120 in a couple weeks, so stay tuned to CageCraze.com for all my fake news and predictions!

Click here to view the embedded video.

We’re off to Long Island, NY to hang out with Matt Serra as he prepares for his fight versus Chris Lytle at UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop. Don’t miss Serra’s fight – this Saturday, Sept. 25th Live on Pay-Per-View at 7pm PT/ 10pm ET.

HT: UFC.com

Before we get to the predictions, some breaking news…

UFC Championship Fighter Fails Drug Test

Bad Example’s UFC 119 Predictions

This is an underdog betting night for me. Three of my five picks are moneyline underdogs. It can be a volatile night – you could lose a wad or make a wad. Manage your bankroll accordingly. Moneylines stolen from BetRoyal.com. Be sure to shop around for the best line for maximum profit.

Melvin Guillard -160 vs. Jeremy Stephens +130

With a combined 20 fights in the UFC, these two guys have been around awhile, but neither have ever had a 3 fight win streak inside the UFC to be in title contention. This’ll change at UFC 119, as both fighters are on two fight winning streaks. Both are knockout artists, with 13 of Stephens’ 18 wins via KO, and 14 of Guillard’s 24 wins via KO. When two high level brawlers are swinging away, is one really that much more of a favorite than the other? I see no reason to assume Guillard could land the perfect one before Stephens, and with Guillard’s susceptibility to submissions (7 out of 8 losses), if Stephens comes in with a smart gameplan, it may not even matter. This is a coin flip, so why not take the underdog?

Evan Dunham -240 vs. Sean Sherk +200

I was shocked at this line. Granted, Dunham is a stud and has a long, bright future. But out of only 11 fights, only his last three are worthy of mention – and two of those were by razor thin split decisions. This is not an elite resume, not yet. Sherk has been fighting the best in the world for years. He’s got three times as many wins as Dunham has fights. They have a common opponent in Tyson Griffin, who Sherk defeated via unanimous decision but Dunham only by split decision. I personally believe you can make a case for Sherk being a rightful favorite in this matchup, so if someone wants to give me 2 to 1 on my money, I’ll take that bet gladly.

Chris Lytle -130 vs. Matt Serra EVEN

I really like this matchup, but what I don’t like is Matt Serra continuing to fight at welterweight. It’s an MMA rule: you fight in the smallest weight class you can. He’s fought at lightweight before, he’s 5 foot 6, he can make lightweight, go to lightweight, goofball. Now as far as the prediction goes… understand that these two have fought before. In 2006 these were the finalists of TUF 4: The Comeback, Serra winning a split decision. Since then Lytle has went 7-5, defeating the likes of Matt Brown (twice) and Brian Foster. Matt Serra has only had four fights since then versus Lytle’s twelve, but against much better competition, defeating and losing to GSP, losing to Matt Hughes, and knocking out Frank Trigg. Because the first match was so close and with Lytle this time having a huge home field advantage being from Indianapolis, I’m leaning towards Lytle.

Ryan Bader -175 vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +145

Another line I was shocked at. Perhaps Bader is being overbet as a TUF winner? Who has Bader beat? Someone tell me. Carmelo Marrero, who was cut from the UFC? Eric Shafer, who was also cut from the UFC? Keith Jardine, who has lost his last five matches straight? Bader just hasn’t fought elite level competition yet, but he will at UFC 119. Nogueira holds wins over Strikeforce -heavyweight- champion Overeem. TWICE. Not to mention Dan Henderson and more recently an impressive performance against Luiz Arthur Cane. Granted, in his last matchup against Jason Brilz he laid an egg, but everyone can have a bad night, and often come back stronger for the next one. I just can’t be a Bader believer until he defeats higher level competition. Again I personally think you could make a case that the moneyline underdog should be a favorite, so I’ll take the underdog again.

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic +180 vs. Frank Mir -220

Mirko is another guy who I believe is breaking the MMA rule I mentioned earlier – he should not be fighting at heavyweight when he can fight at light heavyweight. I do believe Cro Cop can make another run at a title, but it won’t be the heavyweight title. The heavyweight picture has changed so much in the last few years and is now much too dominated by fighters who are much too bigger. I believe he should fight at light heavyweight or his career may be shorter than we are even thinking now. There’s lots of reasons to like Mir in this fight. He’ll outweigh him by about 30lbs, much of that muscle. Mir is still getting better, while Cro Cop’s best days may very well be behind him. Cro Cop also suffered a “likely cornea abrasion” recently which certainly doesn’t help his chances any. The moneyline gives Cro Cop a 35% chance of winning; Mir 68%, perhaps worse if you can shop a better line. I think Mir should be a slightly better favorite so this is the one big favorite I’m picking.

Summary:

Jeremy Stephens, Sean Sherk, Chris Lytle, Antonio Rogerio Noguiera, Frank Mir to WIN

UFC welterweight fighters Matt Serra (11-6) and Chris Lytle (29-17-5) will rematch one another at the upcoming UFC 119 in Indianapolis.

The fight was first reported by MMAjunkie.com who noted that both fighters have agreed to face one another but have yet to sign the bout agreements.

They first faced each other in the welterweight Finale of “The Ultimate Fighter 4: The Comeback” in November of 2006. Serra earned a split decision from the judges to earn the win over Lytle.

Serra, who since then, has gone on to win the UFC welterweight title, earned a victory in his last fight after losing two straight. At UFC 109 he faced Frank Trigg knocking him out in the first round ending Trigg’s hopes of returning to the UFC. He fought once in 2009 and 2008, losing bouts to Matt Hughes and to Georges St-Pierre, who won his title back from Serra at UFC 83.

Lytle, meanwhile has gone on to win a few and lose a few since facing Serra, putting together a 7-3 record since the loss at the TUF 4 Finale. One thing he has done though is win numerous “Fight Night” honors, earning 7 bonuses including 4 “Fight of the Night” awards. Lytle has won his past three bouts having submitted Matt Brown at last weekends UFC 116 event, Brian Foster at UFC 110, and Kevin Burns at the “TUF 9″ Finale.

The yet to be officially announced UFC 119, is believed to take place at the Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis on Sept. 25.

Press Release

Phoenix, Ariz. (July 8, 2010) – Phoenix native and Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) star Joe “Diesel” Riggs will headline a stacked STRIKEFORCE Challengers event from Dodge Theatre in Phoenix, Ariz., when he takes on knockout artist Louis Taylor at a catch weight of 182 pounds in the main event on Friday, Aug. 13, LIVE on SHOWTIME at 11 p.m. ET/PT (delayed on the west coast).

The event, STRIKEFORCE’s first in the state of Arizona, will also feature a four-woman single elimination welterweight (135 pound) tournament comprised of four female prospects to be announced soon. The tournament will be completed over the course of the evening’s fight card.

The winner of the tournament will likely face the champion of the July 23 STRIKEFORCE Women’s Welterweight Title fight between undefeated, defending champ Sarah Kaufman and challenger Roxanne Modafferi in Everett, Wash., LIVE on SHOWTIME.

Tickets for the Aug. 13 Challengers event will be available beginning Saturday, July 17 at 10 a.m. PT through www.livenation.com, www.STRIKEFORCE.com, the Dodge Theatre Box Office, any Ticketmaster outlet or by phone at (800) 745-3000.

A former super heavyweight who once competed at over 300 pounds, the 27-year-old Riggs (32-12) is now a dangerous threat in multiple STRIKEFORCE divisions. He holds the rare distinction of having competed at heavyweight, light heavyweight, middleweight, and welterweight during the course of his eight-year career.

A former UFC star, Riggs holds notable victories over STRIKEFORCE Welterweight champ Nick Diaz, Kendall Grove, Chris Lytle and “The N.Y. Badass” Phil Baroni. He is coming off a controversial unanimous decision loss to streaking, former world champ Jay Hieron at STRIKEFORCE: Miami on Jan. 30, 2010.

Prior to the loss to Hieron, the 6-foot Riggs tallied up four consecutive wins including an impressive unanimous decision victory over Baroni at STRIKEFORCE: Lawler vs. Shields on June 6, 2010 in St. Louis, Mo.

Taylor (6-1), of Chicago, has rattled off two consecutive knockout wins since his first career loss to Nate Moore on the undercard of the STRIKEFORCE and M-1 GLOBAL: Fedor vs. Rogers event in Hoffman Estates, Ill. on Nov. 7, 2009.

The 5-foot-11 Taylor has scored knockouts in four of his six consecutive victories and has only gone to the judges scorecards once in his professional career.

A welterweight rematch between Chris Lytle and
Matt Serra will be featured on the main card of the
as-yet-unannounced UFC 119 event.

MMAjunkie.com has learned from sources close to the promotion that both
fighters have agreed to the matchup, and bout agreements are expected to
be finalized shortly.

UFC 119 takes place Sept. 25 at Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

In what should come as no surprise, Brock Lesnar was the highest paid fighter during last weekend’s UFC 116 event from Las Vegas with a reported $400,000 paycheck for his efforts. In what should come as a minor surprise to many, his opponent Shane Carwin picked up $40,000 for his troubles, which means Lesnar was paid ten-times the amount Carwin was for his appearance in the main event of the evening.

Also among the highest paid athletes to compete at UFC 1116 were Chris Leben ($86,000), who also picked up a hefty “Fight of the Night” bonus check for his third round triangle submission of Yoshihiro Akiyama in a back-and-forth war between middleweights, and Chris Lytle ($52,000) who submitted Matt Brown with a nasty reverse triangle/straight armlock in a welterweight battle.

A full list of the disclosed fighter salaries for UFC 116 is below:

Brock Lesnar: $400,000 (no win bonus) def. Shane Carwin: $40,000

Chris Leben: $86,000 ($43,000 win bonus) def. Yoshihiro Akiyama: $45,000

Chris Lytle: $52,000 ($26,000 win bonus) def. Matt Brown: $10,000

Stephan Bonnar: $50,000 ($25,000 win bonus) def. Krzysztof Soszynski: $10,000

George Sotiropoulos: $24,000 ($12,000 win bonus) def. Kurt Pellegrino: $25,000

Brendan Schuab: $20,000 ($10,000 win bonus) def. Chris Tuchscherer: $12,000

Ricardo Romero: $16,000 ($8,000 win bonus) def. Seth Petruzelli: $10,000

Kendall Grove: $50,000 ($25,000 win bonus) def. Goran Reljic: $5,000

Gerald Harris: $20,000 ($10,000 win bonus) def. David Branch: $6,000

Daniel Roberts: $12,000 ($6,000 win bonus) def. Forrest Petz: $6,000

Jon Madsen: $16,000 ($8,000 win bonus) def. Karlos Vemola: $8,000

UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar ($400,000) and main-card winners Chris Leben ($86,000) and Chris Lytle ($52,000) were the top earners at this past weekend's UFC 116 event.

MMAjunkie.com recently requested and today received the list of disclosed paydays from the Nevada State Athletic Commission.

The total disclosed payroll for the July 3 show was $923,000.