Will Jose Aldo finish Urijah Faber in the first round? Who should Strikeforce champs Gilbert Melendez and Mo Lawal fight next? How elite is Jake Shields? Is Dan Henderson going to call it quits before 2011?

Keyboard warrrrriors….come out to plaaaay-yay!

Another Friday has arrived meaning many of you are on the brink of successfully navigating another week of work or school, and once again GWI hopes to start your weekend out on the right note by providing a little insight and opinion on six topics plucked from the wide world of Mixed Martial Arts. Saturday night marks the PPV debut of World Extreme Cagefighting and a week since the latest Strikeforce offering on CBS. Both events are ripe with subject matter, so sit back, make sure your boss isn’t looking over your shoulder, and read ahead as regular partner-in-crime Adam Tool and I break down a few angles from both affairs. However, just because we staffers get the fancy set-up, please don’t feel precluded from dishing out your own thoughts in the comments section at the bottom of the column…

Is Jake Shields is a “Top 5” pound-for-pound fighter?

Adam Tool: While all rankings are subjective, pound-for-pound lists are (by their very nature) the most subjective. Anyone attempting a respectable pound-for-pound ranking needs to use the fullest extent of their imagination to come up with possible solutions for impossible fights.

However this question is not hard to answer. If you’re putting together a pound-for-pound list there’s a good chance that your top five will include some combination of Anderson Silva, Fedor Emelianenko, Georges St. Pierre, Lyoto Machida, and BJ Penn. You could probably slot Penn down a bit further after his recent loss, but even then there are still a few guys that deserve more consideration for that #5 position than Shields. Dan Henderson is/was a legit top ten P4P fighter so a win over him should put Shields somewhere on that list, but I can’t consider him amongst the very best in the world just yet.

Brendhan Conlan: I’m on the same page with Tool when it comes to the subjective nature of rankings which of course means I disagree with his assessment of where Shields belongs in those of the infamous pound-for-pound variety. While some combination of Silva, Emelianenko, and St. Pierre are commonly accepted as the top three Mixed Martial Artists in the world there’s room for debate below them, especially when considering Machida’s questionable decision win over Mauricio Rua at UFC 104 and Penn’s recent loss to a fighter many consider a natural featherweight. Over the past 5 ½ years, the natural 170-pounder has emerged victorious all fourteen times he’s entered the ring and hasn’t been finished by an opponent in more than a decade. That span includes wins over former WEC champion Carlos Condit and Yushin Okami on the same night, current UFC welterweight contender Paul Daley, and a string of highly respectable middleweights in Strikeforce including of course Henderson. Those accomplishments can’t be dismissed when weighed against his peers. Let’s not forget it was three years ago when GSP stumbled on his ascension to current greatness, meaning Shields has nearly doubled that time period without incurring a loss and gone more than three times as long without tasting TKO (all three of his other career defeats have come via decision). For added perspective, the one and only time the Strikeforce Middleweight Champion was rendered unable to continue came a little less than two years before St. Pierre even made his professional debut.

The Gracie trained Californian has some of the best ground control and submission grappling in the sport. His striking arguably needs improvement, but he has the ability to smother opponents while weathering whatever storm blows his way in the process, so it’s a trait he can work on while compensating for the vanilla stand-up with his other talents. He’s known for being somewhat of a wet blanket in the ring because of his wrestling prowess, but it’s worth considering that he’s finished eight of his last ten adversaries so he may be on his way towards shaking that perception. I’m not saying Shields is a lock for a consensus “Top 5”, and he absolutely needs to test his skills in the Octagon to solidify his place in the collective opinion of the MMA community, but I don’t think it’s too far fetched to consider someone with his credentials in the same class as anyone you can name outside of P4P’s Holy Triumvirate.

True/False – Dan Henderson will retire from competition before the end of 2010.

Tool: It’s hard to say for sure. We’re in a period during the growth of MMA where there are still several veterans with over a decade of experience that can still headline events. Unfortunately there always comes a moment in their career when these fighters really start to show their age (for further reference see Coleman/Rua II, Liddell/Evans, or any of the Shamrock/Ortiz fights). Saturday night was the first time I could remember Dan Henderson looking old.

I don’t know what’s next for “Hendo” but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him sticking to the light heavyweight division for the remainder of his career. By all accounts the cut for this fight was somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 pounds, and that’s only getting more difficult as time goes on. I say match him up with Gegard Mousasi and that should give us a better idea of where both fighters stand.

If I have to give a definitive answer to this question I would go with “false,” as I still think Henderson provides a stern challenge for anyone that signs on to fight him. If he is unable to pick up a win over the course of the next year then it may become more apparent that he needs to move on, but I’m not ready to put him out to pasture after one particularly lousy performance.

Conlan: Agreed on the “false”. Though I do think Henderson will continue fighting into 2011, in fairness I should also say I would completely understand if he hung up his gloves and I’d salute his toothless grin as he rode off into the Temecula sunset if so. He needs to focus on being a 205-pounder instead of subscribing to the young man’s game of cutting weight when it’s a process he doesn’t personally enjoy and one that didn’t do him any favors last weekend. A fight with Mousasi would give fans a chance to see a classic match-up between grizzled veteran and rising superstar, plus there’s a decent possibility the Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Champion would be willing to stand with “Hendo” instead of repeatedly opt for takedowns a la Jake Shields. Another name worth mentioning at 205-pounds is Renato Sobral since he and Henderson went to a split decision ten years ago in the RINGS organization, not to mention “Babalu” is the only other truly marketable light heavyweight besides “King Mo” Lawal currently signed to a Strikeforce contract.

How embarrassed were you as a MMA fan to witness the in-ring melee after the Strikeforce main event?

Tool: It’s embarrassing for the sport, there’s no doubt about that. However I’m finding it hard to get too upset about it, as these sorts of things do in fact happen in pretty much every competitive sport. The timing couldn’t have been worse in this case, as Strikeforce had already murdered the casual audience with three drawn out decisions. They were already 30 minutes over their scheduled time and then they have a full-on brawl as the lead-in to the local news. Honestly, at this point, I’d be pretty surprised if CBS airs another Strikeforce event.

Conlan: On a personal level I was more embarrassed than I’ve ever been watching a MMA event and that’s saying a lot since it includes Dynamite USA and YAMMA Pit Fighting! But seriously, I was absolutely ashamed as an avid supporter of the sport when things went haywire. I thought about how certain people would feel their preexisting uninformed opinions were being confirmed right before their eyes and about how first-time viewers, let alone sponsors looking for an alternative to the UFC, would perceive Mixed Martial Arts based on the beatdown.

However, it’s always important to look for silver linings when things go bad and what happened at “Strikeforce – Nashville” certainly has a few of them worth mentioning. I was thankful no blood was involved due to the visual it would have created no matter how minor the injury, nor did the chaos spread outside of the ring as I’ve seen in other professional sports. The fracas also caused Strikeforce (and I suspect all promoters/athletic commissions) to reevaluate how in-ring security is handled and that’s a good thing as well. I’m confident Scott Coker and Tennessee’s regulatory board will discipline those involved in an appropriate fashion and we’ll all move on to the next controversy in MMA. In the end everyone left the cage on their own accord and, good or bad, the melee created some significant buzz about the event that wouldn’t have existed without it. After all, “Mayhem” Miller vs. Nick Diaz has a lot more appeal today than it did last Friday, does it not?

Maybe it’s for those reasons I’m not as concerned at this moment in time about what happened at the show even though I’m less than a week removed from my initial shock. Then again, had this been a slower news week in sports (Ben Roethlisberger’s standing, the NFL draft, NBA and NHL playoffs, etc.) and more attention plus a negative spin on the matter been plastered all over 24/7 cable news it could have easily been a different story in terms of how we’d all be handling fallout from the event.

Make your picks for the next opponents of Gilbert Melendez and “King Mo” Lawal.

Conlan: In my opinion there are quite a few options for Melendez while Lawal’s match-making potential is much more limited in nature. “El Nino” is fortunate to be competing in a division where the overall depth is dispersed throughout different promotions rather than throwing down in a class the UFC clearly has on lockdown like light heavyweight. At 155-pounds, and with the means to co-promote, Scott Coker’s group can pull someone from their own ranks or go to outside talent and put together a competitive match. If Strikeforce opts for a name already on their current roster I think a rubber match with Josh Thomson is a realistic possibility, while Bellator champion Eddie Alvarez is the top lightweight available who isn’t currently drawing a check from Zuffa. However, while both are suitable opponents, as are a handful of others like DREAM’s Tatsuya Kawajiri and their own undefeated product Billy Evangelista, I think Strikeforce is going to go a different direction. I’m actually picking KJ Noons as Melendez’s next opponent given the success he had in EliteXC, his recent victorious return to Mixed Martial Arts, and the reality he’s got both a marketable look and sellable style. Beyond that, I also think his previous history with Team Gracie’s Nick Diaz couldn’t hurt in terms of drumming up a little additional interest in the bout given Diaz’s close relationship with Melendez and almost assured presence at some point inside the cage. Obviously there can’t be a repeat of this past Saturday night or the exchange that occurred between the rival camps in Noons’ final EliteXC appearance, but that’s not to say the mere possibility of one wouldn’t cause a few extra eyes to focus on the actual event.

Unfortunately, as many names as I can toy with for a shot at the Strikeforce Lightweight Championship, when it comes to Lawal the “mo” in his name doesn’t apply to the number of viable opponents outside of the Octagon ready to challenge him for the crown in a believable fashion. Dan Henderson is probably the most likely candidate for the job, but it’s hard to give him a vote of confidence after the wrestling the new 205-pound champ exhibited against Gegard Mousasi and the ease in which Jake Shields was able to take “Hendo” down. Renato Sobral is a possibility but he hasn’t fought since being TKO’d in a minute by Mousasi eight months ago. I’m actually going to go out on a limb here and say Lawal’s next fight is going to be at heavyweight while Strikeforce sorts out an actual #1 Contender for him. And, to be quite honest, if such is the case I think there’s only one man who is in a perfect position to serve as an extremely intriguing match-up – Fedor Emelianenko. The dynamic, doughy Russian is relatively small for his division so I don’t think size difference would play much of a factor and he’s also not in line for a heavyweight title shot due to the uncertain nature of his contract status or future in Strikeforce. Why not capitalize on 7-0 Mo’s momentum and athleticism to see if he can deliver Fedor’s first definitive loss in MMA while under the Strikeforce banner? Their personalities couldn’t be any more opposite in terms of Lawal’s showmanship vs. Emelianenko’s stoicism, and I think the contrast would be an excellent angle for use in hyping the eventual fight.

Tool: As far as Melendez goes, it should be obvious that Eddie Alvarez is the opponent that makes the most sense. Stylistically the two match up well, and at the moment I don’t think anybody would argue that these are the two best lightweight fighters not in the UFC. The fight won’t be easy to make, as Alvarez is already committed to at least two more fights for Bellator. The only other option I can see that would be possible to do in the near future is a bout with Tatsuya Kawajiri. “Crusher” went undefeated last year and is now the de-facto premier lightweight in Japan. Although Melendez already holds a win over Kawajiri I think it’s still an intriguing match-up, and one that would practically guarantee some exciting action.

As Brendhan mentioned, it’s much tougher to come up with worthwhile opponents for “King Mo.” I wouldn’t be surprised to see Henderson in there, as despite his performance last weekend he’s still easily one of the biggest stars under the Strikeforce banner. A match-up with Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou could be fun, but I don’t think they could justify that as a title fight. I suppose they could try and bring Paulo Filho in, but at this stage in his career the only appointments he seems to keep are the ones that involve getting new tattoos. I hadn’t even considered the option of doing a heavyweight bout with Fedor, but I say why the hell not?

BUY/SELL – Jose Aldo will add another first-round finish to his record when he faces Urijah Faber on Saturday.

Conlan: Sell. I think Aldo will retain his title against Faber but I’m not subscribing to the notion a finish will come in the first five minutes of action. “The California Kid” has certainly been knocked loopy before, but he’s also intelligent enough to recognize Aldo is a dangerous striker and shouldn’t be looking to engage him in a toe-to-toe war. I imagine Faber will use his speed and strength to latch onto Aldo and drag him down to the mat in hopes of prolonging the bout and testing the Brazilian blue-chipper’s cardio. Though Aldo has been a human highlight reel over the past year, in reality he’s gone to the second round or further as many times in the WEC as he’s wiped the canvas with an opponent in opening stanza. Mike Brown didn’t fall until after the fight’s first frame had concluded and neither should the faster Faber.

Tool: I’ll say buy, just for the sake of being a contrarian. Faber has lost a lot of his luster as a result of the back-to-back losses to Brown, meanwhile Aldo has been red-hot and running through opponents with ease. While he didn’t finish off Brown in the first round of their fight, he was close enough as the bout ended early in the second. It’s possible that Aldo will look to play things more conservatively in the biggest fight of his career, but I would hope that he sticks with what got him there. If he comes out aggressive there’s a good chance that he’ll crack Faber’s infamous chin (infamous for its appearance, rather than its weakness) and pounce quickly. In any case I don’t see this fight making it to the championship rounds.

Which result is more likely for the WEC Lightweight Championship fight: Ben Henderson and Donald Cerrone have a five-round war that matches or eclipses their first meeting, or the bout ends in the first ten minutes via (T)KO or submission?

Conlan: I see their rematch also going the distance based on the comparable talent each displayed in the first encounter, as well as the fact in twenty-five combined bouts only Henderson has ever been finished (a TKO in his second pro fight more than three years ago). Neither knows the meaning of the word quit and both have good enough cardio to stay spry for five rounds or at least tread water long enough to avoid making a fight-ending mistake. They’re solid strikers but neither is known for packing ether in their gloves, while each excels when it comes to ground-fighting, so in a lot of ways they cancel each others’ skills out. In a lot of ways they combine to make a recipe for decision, and there’s definitely nothing about the match-up I see indicating it should end at some point in the first two rounds.

Tool: I would love to see these two go at it for 25 minutes again, but something in the back of my mind is telling me that it won’t be so. Occasionally when thinking about an upcoming fight I’ll see it play out a certain way in my head, and then I can’t really imagine any other result. For this one I’m thinking that Henderson gets the takedown, and then Cerrone is once again able to lock in a submission attempt on Henderson. Only this time it’s some sort of choke that “Bendo” can’t get out of, and instead of tapping he gets put to sleep. Donald Cerrone is the new WEC Lightweight Champion, and he is awarded his belt while Henderson is still being brought around to consciousness. This sets up the long-awaited rematch with Jamie Varner, and a potential rubber match between the “Cowboy” and the “Smooth” one.

Truth be told I’m really not sure who’s going to win this one. Both fighters are as tough as they come and still getting better every time they step into the cage. Henderson could certainly retain the belt in his first defense but if that happens I do believe it’ll be by decision. Cerrone is all but impossible to put away, and if Henderson is able to do so it’ll just add even more momentum to his reign as champion.

Should Anderson Silva take more risks to become a better champion? Does BJ Penn deserve an immediate rematch? Should Frank Edgar be ranked as the #1 lightweight? Which title fight at this weekend’s Strikeforce has you most excited? Does Jake Shields need to go to the UFC?

UFC 112 is over, Strikeforce: Nashville is this weekend, and we’ve got issues that need grappling with. As always, esteemed colleagues Adam Tool and Brendhan Conlan have plenty to say about the hot topics of the week. Each will have their say, and then it’s your turn to sound off in the comment box below.

Now, in the immortal words of Cecil Peoples…let’s dance!

Would Anderson Silva be a BETTER champion/fighter if he lost taking unnecessary risks to please fans/management rather than taking a more intelligent, less aesthetically pleasing approach to opponents?

Adam Tool: The only thing that makes Anderson Silva a better champion is defending his belt and winning fights. That’s his job. Yes the sport of MMA serves as entertainment for the millions of fans that watch it, but no mixed-martial artist is going to list “entertainer” on their resume (well, Jason “Mayhem” Miller and Akihiro Gono might). The excessive showboating in the first half of the Silva/Maia fight coupled with the complete lack of action in the second half left everyone with a bad taste in their mouth, but we can’t pretend to know what was going on in Silva’s head. The win may not have gotten him any new fans, but Silva did the job he was supposed to do: win the fight.

When there’s a fighter like Silva, who breathes such rarified air in the MMA world, people have a different set of expectations for how he should perform. He didn’t meet those expectations, and as a consumer you have the right to be dissatisfied with his performance. The fact remains though that this is a sport, and these athletes are going to do whatever they can (within the defined rules of engagement) to win.

Brendhan Conlan: I am surprised by Tool’s response but in a good way, because I completely agree with his viewpoint and felt I was probably one of the only folks in MMAville who hadn’t already sharpened his pitchfork in response to Silva’s antics against Demian Maia. As such, I’m prepared for the comment section to be riddled with posts from people with torch-in-hand, but it would be dishonest of me to wag my finger at “The Spider” for his behavior because I truly wasn’t upset by it. The overwhelming vibe I got in the aftermath of UFC 112 was people being okay with his showboating as long as it results in a finish (Forrest Griffin, Rich Franklin II) but feeling it is horribly disrespectful if not (Maia, Thales Leites, and to an extent Patrick Cote). It’s a hypocrisy I refuse to subscribe to, and furthermore I don’t think any Mixed Martial Artist needs to perform up to any standards beyond the ones he sets for himself.

I understand people feel like Silva owes them something. Yes, a small percentage of the money we fork out for events makes its way into his pockets. However, in reality the UFC benefits from the fans’ patronage to a far greater extent than any fighter, and while our business gives athletes a larger platform to perform on it is still the individual fighter at risk in the ring, i.e. our money being at stake pales in comparison to their actual health or even consciousness being on the line. Why should Silva press the issue of a finish if Maia, who realistically didn’t deserve the opportunity to begin with, refused to throw the same caution to the wind? The champion certainly has more to lose than the challenger, does he not? And would people have been heaping praise on him had he unnecessarily charged in, got caught in guard, and then ultimately submitted? He shouldn’t have, he does, and there would have been a huge uproar about Anderson’s susceptibility on the ground instead of supposed cockiness or lack of interest in fighting. I’d rather he just keeps being other-worldly in the Octagon, not change things up to satisfy others’ wishes.

Should BJ Penn get an immediate rematch with Frank Edgar after such a close fight and semi-questionable decision?

Tool: This past weekend there was a fight that was closely contested, and when the judges’ scores were read some people disagreed with the verdict. I know, this sort of crazy thing never happens in MMA, but I think we can all somehow move on past this.

Last week when everyone was still making predictions for how UFC 112 would go down, nobody was giving Edgar the slightest chance to pull off the upset. Okay there was one guy, but his opinions don’t really matter. Since Edgar wasn’t able to win in thoroughly convincing fashion, it seems that a lot of people want to see him do it again before they can get behind the idea of him as champion. For some reason Zuffa has this thing where if a fighter scores a major upset they have to do it again in order to prove that it wasn’t a fluke. They did it to Matt Serra, they did it to Mike Brown, and they could do it again to Frank Edgar.

You may disagree with the decision but even if you could make the most convincing argument for Penn getting an immediate rematch, I believe there’s a more convincing argument to be made for Gray Maynard getting the first shot at Edgar’s title. Maynard was already in consideration before Edgar got the nod, so it’s not as though he isn’t a legitimate contender. The storyline is already built in with Edgar’s lone career loss coming against Maynard, and both fighters have stated that it’s the match-up they want. Edgar vs. Maynard II may not be the most appealing fight to headline a PPV, but it’s the right fight to make. Have Penn take on another upper-level fighter and give him the next shot if he wins, but for now let’s enjoy the fact that a once-stagnant division has now been blown wide open.

Conlan: I didn’t think the decision was horrific (certain scoring aside) because Edgar buzzed around Penn like a gnat the entire time, scored a few takedowns, and dished out fairly similar damage to what he received. However, I would still like to see Penn get an immediate rematch, and I think it’s short-sighted to say the only reason the UFC would book it is simply because the result of their first pairing was considered an “upset”.

For starters, the fight makes sense for competitive reasons. The first bout was closely contested throughout all five rounds and it’s hard to say either man definitively won in the allotted time period. A lot of people would argue a champion needs to be beaten convincingly in order to lose and that simply didn’t happen. Even the actual per-round statistics back up the case for a questioning the judges’ decision to award Edgar the UFC Lightweight Championship. Also, though talk about humidity and illness feel a little like excuses from Penn’s camp after a loss, Hilo’s favorite son definitely didn’t appear to be the same Mixed Martial Artist who’d shown up so many times before at 155-pounds so I think there’s something to be said about what condition he showed up in regardless of reasoning.

Beyond the in-ring aspect detailed above, the rematch also makes sense for business reasons. Penn is one of the biggest draws in MMA and easily the UFC’s top name at lightweight. Essentially, Penn vs. Edgar II headlines a PPV while Maynard vs. Edgar II plays second-fiddle to a bigger match-up. Gray is an exceptional wrestler with solid boxing, but he hasn’t exactly set the world ablaze with his style by winning six in a row via decision. Penn, on the other hand, hadn’t seen scorecards in the four years prior to UFC 112. There’s nothing wrong with fighting smart, and “The Bully” has compiled a very nice record in the UFC, but in terms of marketability there will always be an emphasis on promoting guys with a propensity for finishing fights.

Which of the three Strikeforce title fights are you most looking forward to?

Tool: This one isn’t hard for me to answer. All three title fights have some level of intrigue to them, but the light heavyweight bout is the one I’ll be paying most attention to. Both Gegard Mousasi and “King Mo” Lawal have a large amount of hype behind them, but that’s pretty much where the similarities end. Mousasi is a lethal striker with a huge advantage in experience, while Lawal is a powerhouse wrestler facing the biggest test of his career. It’s easy to pick Mousasi to win because that’s the safe bet, but at the same time we still don’t really know exactly how good “King Mo” is. There are plenty of questions hanging over either man’s head and I’m very much looking forward to getting some answers on Saturday night.

Conlan: I think Mousasi vs. Lawal is the toughest bout to pick regardless of the vast difference in both their experience and overall technical ability, so I can see why Tool is excited about either seeing the current Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Champion continue his ascension to greatness or watching “King Mo” finally sit atop a promotional throne when they throw down tomorrow night. However, I’m more geeked about Gilbert Melendez locking horns with Shinya Aoki in hopes of shaking up the lightweight rankings yet again as they were last weekend at UFC 112. It’s nice to finally see Aoki in action before 4:00 AM Central Standard Time courtesy of his American debut at the show, and I’m optimistic it won’t be the last time his colorful personality and choice of attire are seen by a live audience outside of Japan. The clash between Melendez’s wrestling/striking style and Aoki’s wizardry on the ground should play out nicely, and though I personally think “El Nino” will use his power to either TKO or grind out a win, it won’t be surprising to see him tapped out for the first time in his career because Shinya is so supremely talented when things hit the mat. It’s that sort of parity, as well as the promotional flag attached to each in this DREAM vs. Strikeforce showdown, that has me anticipating this particular championship fight more so than either of its counterparts on the card.

Which option appeals most to you for Anderson Silva’s next fight: defending his title against Vitor Belfort or Chael Sonnen, taking a showcase fight at light heavyweight, or dropping down to 170 for a super-fight with Georges St. Pierre?

Conlan: Even though it has since been announced Silva is set to face Sonnen at an upcoming event, the question posed asks which of those scenarios I find to be the most appealing one, and as such I would have preferred to see “The Spider” take on a top level light heavyweight rather than defend his middleweight championship against another opponent with questionable contendership credentials. Sonnen’s trio of victories since losing to Demian Maia at UFC 95 featured impressive grappling and ground control on his part but nothing to merit any real confidence in his ability to compete against Silva. The UFC is risking another five-round, pick-and-pepper fest by throwing Anderson in the ring with yet one more adversary needing to get inside, and to the mat, to do any significant damage rather than someone who is both comfortable and a threat in the striking department. Then again, perhaps the UFC’s point in making the match is to do just that and see how Silva responds since he’s apparently at risk of release if he behaves similarly to how he has in the past when unimpressed by what an opponent brings to the cage.

Rather, I would have preferred to see the enigmatic Brazilian face a 205-pounder who can press for a finish while standing, is athletic enough to match Silva’s speed, and has enough of a grappling base to make things interesting on the ground if necessary. Two names fitting that bill are Jon Jones and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (assuming Lyoto Machida retains his title at UFC 113). I also think Quinton Jackson’s concrete jaw, aggressive nature, and powerful striking would be an interesting test for the UFC Middleweight Champion, but ultimately I think “Rampage” might be a little too slow to avoid a forcible nap at the hands, feet, knees, and elbows of Silva.

Tool: There’s no shortage of interesting fights waiting for Silva at 205, and any one of the fights mentioned by Brendhan would be appealing. I also wouldn’t be opposed to the idea of Silva moving even further up, as he’s expressed an interest in doing exactly that. Frank Mir has already stated that he’s willing to fight “The Spider” at a catchweight of 235, and there’s little to no chance that the resulting fight would possibly be labeled “boring.” I also don’t want to see Dana White giving up on the idea of a Silva/GSP super-fight, as that bout needs to happen at some point sooner or later.

At the end of the day I’m pleased to see Silva stepping up to another title defense, although I’m not exactly pleased with the opponent. It is truly a sad day in mixed-martial arts when people are looking to Chael Sonnen to deliver an exciting fight. While Sonnen may have earned his spot in the contender’s list, the more appealing bout at this point has to be Silva vs. Belfort. Don’t bother filling the comment box with statements on how Belfort hasn’t earned his shot, as the fact of the matter is that he should have fought Silva this past Saturday. Had the fight gone down as originally intended the story of UFC 112 would have played out much differently. You want Anderson Silva to have an exciting fight? Put him in with an aggressive striker that won’t get scared when the cage door closes, then sit back and watch the fireworks.

Buy/Sell – Regardless of whether he wins or loses on Saturday, Jake Shields needs to leave Strikeforce for the UFC.

Conlan: Definitely a “buy”. And, as it turns out, Dan Henderson is actually the perfect opponent to help facilitate the transition between organizations. There’s no shame in losing to someone with Henderson’s credentials, and if such takes place it might remind Shields he seems to be best served by fighting at 170-pounds instead of against larger guys. The UFC’s roster of welterweights far eclipses that of Strikeforce so it’s naturally the place he should want to solidify his legacy in. On the other hand, if Shields beats “Hendo” he’ll have earned a win over a highly respected veteran with roots in the UFC and who recently had a less-than amicable falling out with the company. I’m confident a few Zuffa representatives with upstairs offices will be tuning in Saturday night, and if they like what they see they may try harder than ever to sign the Californian in hopes of finding a marketable threat to Georges St. Pierre’s welterweight championship. Shields is the only 170-pound gunslinger for hire who hasn’t tested his skills inside the Octagon with a list of past accomplishments impressive enough to make people believe he actually has a chance to dethrone GSP. I appreciate the credibility Shields has lent to Strikeforce with his name, as well as the publicity they’ve given him in the process, but as far as I’m concerned there’s no question it’s time for the vegetarian fighter to finally head towards greener pastures.

Tool: I can’t go with anything else but “buy” here as well. Let’s say Shields does manage to upset Henderson, then what? Does he continue defending a title outside of his natural weight class? Does anybody want to see Shields vs. Smith? He can’t go after the Strikeforce Welterweight Championship, as that currently resides around the waist of his good friend Nick Diaz.

It makes far too much sense for Shields to go to the UFC. For one, the UFC could always use more high-level welterweights that they can get who aren’t members of American Kickboxing Academy. I think he would match up well with a lot of the premier fighters in the division, as his mix of wrestling and jiu-jitsu could provide a stern challenge for just about anyone he faces. If Shields signed with Zuffa in the near future I’d love to see him matched up with the winner of Paulo Thiago vs. Martin Kampmann, or you could throw him right into the deep end and match him up with the winner of Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves. Let’s not forget his recent victory over surging UFC contender Paul Daley either.

The biggest factor though is the way that Shields has made it very clear that he wants a fight with St. Pierre. This always seemed like posturing before, but now things are actually in motion to make that happen. Should Shields join the UFC and get a top-level opponent right away, he could conceivably be fighting for the title after one or two wins. Obviously this benefits the UFC, as they’re desperate for any and all credible challengers to St. Pierre’s seemingly endless reign of dominance.

Do you believe that Frank Edgar deserves to be ranked as the #1 lightweight in the world, or should that honor go to the winner of this weekend’s Aoki/Melendez fight?

Conlan I think a case can be made for Shinya Aoki if he beats Melendez, as he hasn’t been defeated at lightweight since being knocked out by Joachim Hansen in July 2008 and even that loss came in Aoki’s second fight of the night (his first was a hard fought decision over Caol Uno). Melendez also hasn’t tasted defeat at 155-pounds since mid-2008 but has only racked up three wins since last losing in comparison to Aoki’s six over that same span of time.

As far as Edgar goes, he clearly deserves a place towards the top of the rankings after coming away with a win against BJ Penn, but it’s hard to put him on the peak of the 155-pound mountain when it could be argued Penn didn’t appear to be at his best in the bout and still should have arguably won the fight. Additionally, Edgar has shown an inability to finish his opposition and looked relatively poor in his loss to Gray Maynard (mid-2008 as chance would have it).

Aoki is consistently a threat to end in-ring action before letting the likes of Douglas Crosby or Cecil Peoples influence a bout’s outcome, and, if he adds Melendez to a group of fallen foes already including fighters like Uno, Hansen, JZ Calvancante, Eddie Alvarez, “Shaolin” Ribeiro, he deserves consideration as the top lightweight in Mixed Martial Arts.

Tool: Say what you will about Penn’s performance this past weekend and the scoring controversy that came about as a result, to me this question was answered by Edgar in his post-fight interview. “BJ Penn is the best lightweight in the world, and I just beat him.” On that basis (along with Edgar’s other notable wins) I see no reason why he doesn’t deserve the top spot in the lightweight rankings. His spot at #1 is much more tenuous than Penn’s, as Edgar has not achieved the same level of dominance in the division as the now former champ did. However until someone beats him I believe it is the right decision to place Edgar at the top.

As for Aoki, I’m already skeptical of him being the #2 guy in the division. He’s been impressive (for the most part) but he hasn’t faced the level of competition to merit such a high placement. Truth be told, there are at least five UFC lightweights that I would pick to win in a hypothetical bout with Aoki. I reserve the right to change my tune if Aoki can pull off an impressive win over a top 10 opponent (something he has the opportunity to do this weekend) but for now I can’t justify having him at the very top.

I’ve always had a bit of a soft spot for Melendez and will be firmly rooting for him to successfully defend his Strikeforce Lightweight Championship this weekend. However, much like Aoki, Melendez has not faced enough members of the lightweight elite to warrant a spot at #1. Give him time and he may find himself in the upper echelon, but for now he’ll have to be content with the (possible) title of the best lightweight outside of the UFC.

Is Frank Edgar more likely to pull off an upset this weekend over BJ Penn than Demian Maia is over Anderson Silva? Can either contender go a full five rounds against their opposition? Are you more excited than you previously were for the newest season of TUF now that a few episodes have aired? Should Roy Nelson serve as the welcoming committee in James Toney’s eventual UFC debut?

Keyboard warrrrriors….come out to plaaaay-yay!

Another Friday has arrived and GWI’s engines are officially revving for UFC 112 to unfold from the Ferrari World Concert Arena in Abu Dhabi! What some may see as a lack of competitive match-ups at the event should certainly be made up for by the spectacle of the UFC’s Middle Eastern debut in the lavish, open-air venue, as well as the performances of pound-for-pound royalty Penn and Silva. Per usual, Adam Tool will be joining me to discuss six subjects plucked from the MMA landscape. However, just because we staffers get the fancy set-up, please don’t feel precluded from dishing out your own thoughts on each matter in the comments section at the bottom of the column…

In comparison to last week, on a scale from 1 to 10, how excited are you for the 11th season of The Ultimate Fighter now that you’ve seen the first episode?

Adam Tool: Having now watched the first episode I’d be willing to bump my excitement level up to an 8, as the talent pool for this tournament looks pretty solid. I think it’s fair to say that we saw far better fights in just that first episode then what we saw during the entire tenth season. The return of the elimination round makes me wonder just how the last season would have turned out had the fighters been forced to win their way into the house. I still can’t stand Tito but with each passing day it appears more and more likely that he’ll be departing at some point during the season so Rich Franklin can step in, and I’m cool with that.

Oh, and somebody breaks a door this season…so that’s new.

Brendhan Conlan: I’d register my interest level at a full point higher than it was last week prior to having seen the first episode (meaning “7.5”). I agree the cast appears to be one of the more talented TUF collections in recent history, as the final sixteen fighters feature a nice mix of semi-polished veterans and young guns with impressive raw skills. The group has also shown a good deal of personality thus far, and there are already a number of storylines ready to develop ranging from whether or not Clayton McKinney will break under Tito’s tutelage, seeing if Jamie Yager will silence others with head-kicks or have his own mouth forcibly shut, rooting for Kyle Noke in honor of “The Crocodile Hunter” Steve Irwin, and of course the coaches’ rivalry. Plus, after witnessing the variety of knockouts, submissions, and facial carnage dished out during the elimination round I’m also on board with Tool’s comparison of quality to the whole of Season Kimbo 10.

I also want to add that not only have I again been drawn into Ortiz’s leadership as team head, but I’ve enjoyed watching Chuck Liddell in front of the Ultimate Fighter cameras in contrast to how he does when put in interview/public relations situations. “The Iceman” is clearly much more relaxed while training fighters than hyping his upcoming bouts or attempting to deliver witty soundbytes on a talk show. His personal investment in the development of his squad, even if partially influenced by his dislike of “The Huntington Beach Not-as-Bad-as-He-Used-to-Be Boy”, is as equally obvious as his increased comfort and has actually sparked my interest in Liddell beyond his accomplishments inside the Octagon.

Which of the two title fights at UFC 112 is most likely to go the distance?

Tool: Given the fact that Anderson Silva and Demian Maia have each only had one UFC bout go to the judges, I’ll go with the lightweight championship fight on this one. Silva is probably going to knock Maia out, or Maia is going to somehow submit the champ. I don’t see that fight being closely contested on the feet, nor do I anticipate any sort of “human chess” should the bout go to the ground.

BJ Penn can still put opponents away pretty consistently, but his last few fights have gone into the championship rounds. His opponent, Frankie Edgar, is notoriously difficult to finish (go back and watch the Tyson Griffin fight if you don’t believe me) and has only lost once in his career. I envision this fight being contested primarily on the feet, and while Penn would have to have the edge in striking I think Edgar has developed his game to the point where he can hang with the champ. I still like Penn to win, but I think Edgar could keep it competitive and last the full 25 minutes.

Conlan: I think this will boil down to each challenger’s willingness to engage and as such I think Maia has a better chance of going the full five rounds than Edgar (even if it’s a slim one). The submission specialist almost certainly knows his best chance of winning is on the ground and shouldn’t be attempting to do more than work his jab and defend while standing. If, like Thales Leites, he has to pull guard twenty times and illicit the crowd’s disapproval for doing so then it’s a necessary evil he needs to explore in hopes of defeating “The Spider”. Likewise, Silva is an intelligent fighter and isn’t going to carelessly force himself into situations where he can be exposed. He’ll wait for every opportunity to present itself, even if it means outpointing Maia rather than rendering him unconscious.

As far as Edgar, who isn’t even a clearly established number one contender to begin with, do you know who else was difficult to finish? Diego Sanchez, Kenny Florian, and Sean Sherk. The three of them had a total of two losses via TKO/submission in more than seventy combined fights prior to their collective dates with BJ Penn. Edgar’s primary strengths are wrestling and boxing. Unfortunately for him Penn is remarkably tricky to take down, insanely good off his back, and has shown himself to be one of the best technical boxers in Mixed Martial Arts. It’s a recipe for disaster, not twenty-five minutes.

If Anderson Silva retains his middleweight belt against Demian Maia, and if “Shogun” Rua defeats Lyoto Machida next month at UFC 113, should “The Spider” be given an immediate shot at the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship?

Tool: Yes, but only if he wants it. I don’t know how much I like the idea of Silva potentially holding two belts in the UFC, but if he thinks he’s good enough to hold a spot at the top of two divisions then why not? I don’t believe that he would get an immediate shot at the belt though, as I would have to believe that the winner of Rashad Evans/”Rampage” Jackson will get that honor. Furthermore I wouldn’t be surprised to see Silva turn a title shot down and defer to his friends Lyoto Machida and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. In any case there are still a few challenges left for him at middleweight (guys like Chael Sonnen and Vitor Belfort), so if he chooses to keep his focus there it would probably be best for everyone.

Conlan: No, even in that scenario Silva shouldn’t sniff the light heavyweight title until he at least beats one more legitimate 205-pound contender like the loser of “Rampage” Jackson vs. Rashad Evans (as I suspect the winner will be next in line for a crack at the belt). His accomplishments at middleweight should definitely be taken into consideration, and his dismantling of former LHW champion Forrest Griffin was awe-inspiring, but there are too many quality fighters in the division to risk the strap on a part-timer unless he’s the only interesting option left. Silva has even expressed interest in testing himself at heavyweight. What’s the point of having a champion who requires the layoff it takes to jump between weight classes or defend two titles? And, as Tool said, there are still intriguing match-ups for the Brazilian at 185-pounds like Sonnen, Belfort, or even Wanderlei Silva and Alan Belcher.

Both of this weekend’s title challengers are heavy underdogs. Which fighter do you think has a better chance of pulling off the upset?

Conlan: My impression on the matter is that neither contender has a legitimate chance of bringing home a win without scoring a lightning-fast finish at some point in the fight. The odds of Maia/Edgar winning a decision or manhandling either champion en route to victory appear akin to those of Dana White growing his hair back out due to the pound-for-pound potency of Silva/Penn. However, combat sports have long taught the lesson any individual can defeat any other at any given time. It takes one perfectly placed strike to render an opponent unconscious, one masterful series on the mat to procure a devastating submission, and one mistake regardless of any gap in overall ability to open the door of opportunity for either to take place.

For this reason, between the two challengers, I think Maia has a better chance of bringing both heartbreak and elation to anyone laying down coin by doing the unthinkable and walking away with promotional gold. The quality of his technique on the ground goes without saying while Silva has twice been tapped in his career by opponents with less-than notable submission credentials. I have no doubt “The Spider” has vastly improved his jiujitsu since then, but in no way does that guarantee he’ll be able to successfully navigate the web Maia can create on the canvas if action ends up there at any point in the bout. On the other hand, I don’t see any particular advantage for Edgar in his respective pairing so I can’t pick him over Maia as having the most potential for dropping our jaws this weekend.

Tool: When I first thought about this question I came to a similar conclusion, as I’m sure most of you did. The only real weakness Silva has shown in the past has been his submission defense, and he’s facing one of the most dangerous submission specialists in the game. I’m pretty sure that Silva will put it on Maia quickly, but if this fight heads to the ground I’ll be watching from the edge of my seat.

That being said, I think it may be Edgar that is better poised to deliver the upset. Consider the improvements made in his striking ever since the loss to Gray Maynard. Is it possible that Edgar could keep things competitive on the feet? I think so. I know BJ’s boxing is (arguably) the best in the division, but if he can’t land any big shots then Edgar could keep it close. Penn has some legendary takedown defense, but with some relentless effort (and maybe a trip or two) Edgar could potentially take him down. Even if BJ gets back to his feet after a few seconds it would still be enough for Frank to steal a close round. We can also give some consideration to the fact that Penn isn’t 100% focused on this defense, as he has said virtually nothing about his opponent leading up to this fight and a lot of his talk seems to be about moving up to the welterweight division. If Edgar can put together the best performance of his life and catch Penn at the right time, it’s feasible to think that “The Answer” could come home with a narrow decision win over “The Prodigy.”

Aside from the two title fights which bout are you looking forward to the most at UFC 112?

Conlan: I’m sure the obvious answer for many relates to the showdown between legends of the sport Renzo Gracie and Matt Hughes, but in reality neither has been considerably relevant in the last few years or looks to be again at any point in the future. Gracie has been out of action for more than three years, and Hughes will become the third opponent out of the last four he’s faced who has been over the age of 35. Comparably, the iconic former UFC Welterweight Champion hasn’t been inside the Octagon for close to a year or finished an opponent since September 2006. The name value involved is nice, and it’s an appropriate way to honor the event’s host nation, but it’s definitely not a match-up I’ll be sitting on the edge of my couch for.

However, a result I am looking forward to finding out is that of Nick Osipczak vs. Rick Story. Both 25-year olds have shown talent, heart, and personality during their brief stints in the UFC and appear to have a great deal of potential for success in MMA. Osipczak is undefeated and, at 6’1, tall for a welterweight, while Story still seems a bit raw but has picked up some nice wins in two-and-a-half year career and reminds me a bit of Clay Guida minus the mane (good grappler, high motor, not afraid to bang). I’m not confident their undercard bout will make the televised broadcast but I’m certainly hopefully of such being the case. On a side note, I’m also extremely curious to see whose “0” goes between Phil Davis and Alexander Gustafsson, but I’m sticking with Story and Osipczak since I’m interested in watching both of their careers develop and find myself less invested on what happens to Gustafsson on Saturday night.

Tool: The bout between Davis and Gustafsson has my interest as well, and is my pick for the fight I most hope makes it onto the PPV broadcast. Davis has some tremendous strength and unstoppable takedowns, but I’m curious to see how he deals with a fighter that has knockout power and a solid jiu-jitsu game.

In terms of the PPV card I really want to see what happens with the Mark Munoz/Kendall Grove bout. Grove has been hot and cold throughout his UFC career but he has won his last 3 out of 4, and he looked particularly impressive in his 90 second destruction of Jason Day last March. I’m slowly becoming a big fan of Munoz, as he has been an absolute beast since making the drop down to middleweight. He’s also been training hard with some of the best fighters in the world at Black House, and it’s easy to see the improvements he’s made in his striking. This fight may not have immediate implications in the middleweight title picture, but it could very well be the catalyst for one of these fighters to move up to the next level.

Even though it was brought up as a joke, how would you feel about Roy Nelson being the fighter to welcome James Toney to the UFC?

Conlan: I’m all for it, though I’m unsure an athletic commission would ever approve the bout given the vast difference in Mixed Martial Arts experience involved.

Toney doesn’t have the same mainstream credibility he once did so it isn’t as though his name is going to draw the numbers a currently relevant boxer would if crossing over to MMA. As such, putting him in the Octagon against Roy Nelson would spice up the involved marketing aspect due to Nelson’s success in the sport and label as TUF 10 Season Champion. The bout’s result would also be win/win for the UFC. A win for Nelson, whether by tummy-crucifix-based ground-and-pound or an easily found submission, would act as evidence of why boxers should avoid Mixed Martial Arts without serious training beforehand. A win for Toney, obviously of the knockout variety, would give the UFC a new “star” to promote and knock Nelson down a few pegs to the delight of those – perhaps even the ones upstairs at Zuffa – who dislike the Buddha-bellied fighter’s physique.

Tool: I’m trying to get excited about James Toney’s UFC debut, I really am. There’s been no indication from the Zuffa brass about who he’ll face, so why the hell not Roy Nelson? If anything it gives Toney an advantage, since he’s practically guaranteed to be the fighter with the more impressive physical appearance.

Nelson’s no dummy, and I don’t think he would want to stand and exchange with a former boxing champion wearing four-ounce gloves. “Big Country” would get the takedown, lock in his new finishing move (the “gutoplata”), and it would be all over for James Toney in MMA. Sounds good to me.

Are you excited for the new season of The Ultimate Fighter? Is Georges St. Pierre a boring fighter? Do Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck need to fight one another? Who will hold the UFC Heavyweight Championship once Brock Lesnar, Shane Carwin and Cain Velasquez fight one another? What’s the value of having Takanori Gomi in the UFC?

Since the last edition of this feature we’ve witnessed two title fights, the UFC debut of a former PRIDE legend, the season premiere of The Ultimate Fighter and much more. I’m joined as always by Brendhan Conlan and we’re ready to look at all the important stories coming out of the past seven days. As always we encourage you to voice your own opinions on any and all of the topics in the comment box below.

Now, in the immortal words of Cecil Peoples…let’s dance!

On a scale of 1 to 10, how excited are you for the 11th season of The Ultimate Fighter?

Adam Tool: I’d put my excitement level at about a 7. There’s still something enjoyable about watching all these guys come into the house with a dream of making it, picking your favorites, and watching as they fail or succeed. Plus I’m curious to see how the tournament plays out with the new “wildcard” aspect, and overall it seems this season’s tournament is set up to find the next true talent in the sport. If nothing else, the fights can’t be any worse than the ones we got last season.

As far as the coaches go, I’m mostly indifferent. I have never in my life been a Tito Ortiz fan so the idea of him getting plenty of screen time to talk about himself (and Punishment Athletics, of course) doesn’t really grab me. On the opposite side you’ve got Chuck Liddell, a fighter who’s so boring outside of the cage that I have to look up a new word to describe his lack of charisma. Simply put, “The Iceman” is platitudinous. I don’t really care about their third match-up coming up later this year, as both guys are well on their way down the ladder in the division they used to rule.

Brendhan Conlan: I’d put my interest level at about a “6.5”. I was familiar with a few of the contestants prior to their affiliation with the show, and I’m always interested in seeing new talent get a chance on a stage as large as The Ultimate Fighter. The rivalry between coaches Tito Ortiz and Chuck Liddell isn’t as relevant as it would have been a few years ago but should still be fun to watch unfold. I’m also curious to see if Ortiz endears himself to viewers as the superior mentor/leader in the same way he did opposite Ken Shamrock. Beyond all that, I’m ready for the controversy surrounding Ortiz’s short-lived stint as coach, and rumored mid-season replacement by Rich Franklin, to go away. Put that all in a bowl, mix for ten minutes, and you get a “6.5”.

Should Rousimar Palhares be released for his actions at UFC 111?

Tool: Seriously? Released? Absolutely not. There was nothing malicious about Palhares’ actions. As he’s explained in the days following the fight this all stems from an incident involving his trainer, former UFC Middleweight Champion Murilo Bustamante. Back at UFC 37 Bustamante got Matt Lindland to tap out, only to have the fight continue when “Big” John McCarthy didn’t see the tap. After that Murilo taught his fighters to not release the hold until the referee pulls you apart.

I’m not willing to completely absolve Palhares for his actions. He did keep the hold in a few seconds longer than needed, but it’s nothing like the incident that saw Renato “Babalu” Sobral get kicked out of the UFC. “Babalu” held the choke too long, refused to break at first when the referee tried to pull them apart, then claimed in his post-fight interview that he held the choke to teach his opponent a lesson. That was a dickish move and Sobral deserved the punishment he got. Palhares’ 90 day suspension seems fair enough, but to suggest that the UFC should release him is ridiculous.

Conlan: Yes, seriously released, and not necessarily because I think what he did was horribly offensive but rather because I would like to see the UFC enforce consistent policies on fighter behavior. I will not accept the argument “Babalu” deserved his pink-slip because his motivation was “dickish” while Palhares deserves a free pass from his bosses at Zuffa because of Bustamante’s experience in the Octagon eight years ago. And, frankly, if making ignorant comments were grounds for termination from the UFC than Strikeforce’s roster would be twice as deep as it currently is. I agree there are differences between the two incidents but the principle is the same – both Brazilians deliberately held onto a submission longer than needed and unnecessarily risked an opponent’s health in the process. The NJSACB obviously noted something unprofessional about Palhares’ behavior or else he wouldn’t have received a three-month suspension. Similarly, Sobral was fined $25,000 by the NSAC for his actions. If both State athletic commissions felt strongly enough to penalize the involved athletes why shouldn’t UFC brass do the same?

Furthermore, the actual technique used by Palhares was far more dangerous (obviously assuming both are eventually unlatched). Heel-hooks can be devastating to a fighter’s career based on the type of damage inflicted while the aftermath from having your lights choked out is minimal. It’s also a method Palhares is extremely familiar with being that UFC 111 marked his fourth career win using the hold. Someone with his intimate knowledge of jiujitsu had to know Tomasz Drwal was done the instant it was applied properly.

With three of his four title defenses resulting in decision victories, is it fair to say Georges St. Pierre is a “boring” fighter regardless of how dominating his performances have been?

Tool: If GSP was the type of wrestler that was content to take his opponent down, remain in guard, and inflict minimal damage then I would say yes. The fact is though that St. Pierre’s wrestling has always been one part of his outstanding skillset. Yes, it is a rather large part, but he’s not some one-dimensional fighter that has to rely on takedowns and ground control to win. As we saw in the Dan Hardy fight, St. Pierre still wants to get the finish. If he was facing someone that lacked the heart of Hardy that fight would have been over due to the armbar in the first round. In his last fight with Thiago Alves we saw St. Pierre willing to stand and trade with an opponent known primarily for his striking. GSP still went for the takedowns and got them, but he also landed plenty of strikes from the top position.

While I don’t consider him to be a boring fighter, I can understand where people are coming from when they say that. Just about any fan of this sport loves to see the knockouts and submissions that make things so exciting. When a fighter is constantly going to decisions it can decrease that excitement simply on the basis that said fighter has become too predictable. Everyone that picked Jon Fitch to win in his fight picked him to do so by decision (same goes for any Yushin Okami fight). When a fighter doesn’t seem to be looking to finish his fights, that’s when the fans turn on him and label him “boring.” St. Pierre does seem to be heading down that path, as we’ve already started to see some backlash towards his recent string of performances. I have a feeling that St. Pierre will work even harder to finish his next fight, and here’s hoping he gets the job done.

Conlan: I’ll say this – if St. Pierre is “boring” than he’s the most exciting “boring” fighter out there. I understand where the criticism comes from. Fans (me included) love to see fights finished, and it’s hard to not be more impressed by the performance of a Mixed Martial Artist who consistently wipes the mat with his opponent before the judges’ scorecards come into play than one who ever allows Cecil Peoples to affect a bout’s outcome.

It goes without saying GSP has become an incredible wrestler in the past few years. He can consistently take his opponents down and has the strength/technique to control them on the mat. However, contrary to taking a “wet blanket” approach, St. Pierre is at least willing to deliver damage on the ground to the point he’ll occasionally make a mistake and give up superior positioning. I agree 100% with Tool’s assessment that a fighter with lesser intestinal fortitude than Dan Hardy would have tapped out, and I think the also can be same about Jon Fitch if you substitute a finished-by-strikes scenario for the submission-based one. The one thing I take issue with, however, is the notion “Rush” should give a second’s thought to switching up anything he does with the singular motivation of beating adversaries in less than twenty-five minutes. Even though he’s gone the distance more recently than not he’s still finished 2/3 of the opponents he’s stepped into the ring with. There’s nothing wrong with fighting intelligently, as he does, and as the old cliché goes “If it ain’t broke don’t fix it.” If St. Pierre consciously “tries” to finish opponents it could negatively affect his performance in the same way over-thinking situations can similarly impact athletes of every variety.

After Brock Lesnar faces Shane Carwin, and the winner takes on Cain Velasquez, who will be the UFC Heavyweight Champion?

Conlan: Before further examining this issue I want to make it clear I’m still not convinced Velasquez will get a title-shot without first beating Junior Dos Santos. Carwin and Lesnar are scheduled to test the Octagon’s durability in early July meaning neither will be available to defend the championship until October/November without sacrificing an appropriate period of training for such an important bout. If it is assumed Velasquez’s contendership status is set in stone you’re looking at an 8-9 month period the AKA product would be forced to sit on the sidelines. I think such a scenario is highly unlikely, and with Dos Santos having escaped unscathed against Gabriel Gonzaga a few weeks ago I don’t see why the two blue-chippers can’t scrap this summer to establish a crystal clear challenger to the heavyweight throne.

Back to the actual question at hand, I think the match-up between Lesnar and Carwin is extremely difficult to pick, as it’s essentially like choosing who will win a fight between Hercules and the Incredible Hulk. Both are accomplished grapplers with comparable physical attributes. They’ve each shown the ability to separate opponents from consciousness, yet also been the victims of a well-placed strike or two leaving their proverbial cage moderately rattled. The coin I’ve just flipped tells me the underdog will win, and if such is the case I think it will be in part to Lesnar’s health-related layoff from action and in part Carwin’s uncanny ability to leave his foes crumpled on the canvas faster than Dana White says “f*ck” when he stubs his toe. However, regardless of outcome, in the end I currently think Velasquez beats either behemoth. He’s undersized and lacks either’s brute strength but is also faster, has knockout power of his own, and possesses the wrestling credentials to compete with either in terms of takedowns or mat-based action.

Tool: I was thinking along the same lines as my colleague, as I’ve been holding down a seat on the Cain Train since he made his UFC debut. I’m still not sure who I think will win between Lesnar and Carwin, as there are still too many questions surrounding that one. How will Lesnar do against an actual knockout artist? How will Carwin do if he gets taken past the first round? I can really see things going either way at UFC 116, but in the end I believe it’s Velasquez who stands tall. He’s got the wrestling pedigree to impose his will on just about anyone, he’s got a solid chin and quick recovery, and he’s clearly made big strides to improve his boxing. Of the three athletes in this discussion Velasquez appears to be the most complete mixed-martial artist of the bunch, and I believe he’ll be the one holding UFC gold at the start of 2011.

True/False – If Josh Koscheck can beat Paul Daley, he must fight his teammate Jon Fitch to determine a true #1 contender.

Conlan: I respect both individuals and admire the commitment they’ve shown to not only their friendship but the camaraderie created at AKA as well. However, even though Mixed Martial Arts is a team sport in the sense it takes a village – preferably one with bags, weights, mats, and a ring – to raise a champion, in the end it comes down to how one individual fares against another when the bell sounds and the action begins.

As long as Georges St. Pierre is champion neither Koscheck or Fitch will get a crack at the title, and neither can be considered the true welterweight top contender, until they face each other or the other one loses to a different opponent. It is impossible for either to fully sweep the division clean of challengers because at the end of the day they will remain neck-and-neck in the standings. Additionally, it works against them that both have a decisive loss to GSP in the past so there isn’t exactly a competitive clamoring to see a repeat performance. Dana White is under no obligation to give either an opportunity to win the belt. There is no BCS system in MMA. He and Joe Silva create the match-ups they feel are marketable, and there will always be another Dan Hardy or other comparable fighter (Paulo Thiago, Paul Daley, etc.) who puts together a string of impressive wins and is waiting in the wings.

I don’t know if it means Fitch and Koscheck need to train somewhere other than American Kickboxing Academy, or if they would simply schedule different times to show up to the gym, but the bout needs to happen if the future success and sense of personal accomplishment becoming champion brings with it outweighs the fear of their friendship being tarnished by scrapping in the Octagon. Then again, it’s perfectly possible they’re comfortable waiting for St. Pierre to lose while risking their ranking in the organization with every OTHER fight they take. If that’s the case, regardless of how you or I may personally feel about it, it’s their lives and I certainly won’t criticize them for their loyalty to one another.

Tool: No doubt, this one is True for me. I can understand the reasons why these guys don’t want to fight each other, but at the end of the day it really doesn’t matter. There’s no championship for the best fight camp, so what the hell are Fitch, Koscheck, and Mike Swick competing for? What if one of them won the belt, would the other two simply be satisfied with never going after that title? These guys are trying to put a stranglehold on the UFC’s welterweight division, and frankly I’m just glad that guys like Dan Hardy and Paulo Thiago are around to shake things up and keep the AKA fighters from having too much control.

Simply stated, mixed martial arts is still a sport about individual accomplishments. Unless you’re willing to give up your shot at those accomplishments you can’t say that you’ll never fight someone. If Koscheck beats Daley then he’ll have a legitimate claim to being a top contender, but obviously Fitch has a pretty good claim as well. They don’t get to draw straws and tell Dana who should get the title fight. They fight the guys that their boss says to fight, or they get the hell out of the company and go somewhere where they don’t have to worry about those kinds of things.

So what’s it going to be, Josh and Jon? Do you want to put your friendship aside for 15 minutes for a shot at the ultimate prize, or would you rather go fight in Strikeforce and let your friends have the glory?

What is the benefit of Gomi being in the UFC?

Conlan: After debuting Gomi in the Octagon against an experienced, dangerous opponent a la Kenny Florian, the cynic in me would like to say Zuffa sees him as beneficial in tarnishing PRIDE’s reputation but the realist knows nothing of the sort is the case. Dana White has embraced a number of the long-gone organization’s fighters and, as indicated by the merchandising push and highlight show on Spike TV, clearly sees it as a source of making a little money. The reality is “The Fireball Kid” hasn’t had the same sizzle for awhile and his benefit to the UFC, at least until they’re able to promote a show in Japan, is minimal. He’s a name hardcore fans rightfully respect and creates interest in match-ups from that perspective, but he also hasn’t won a significant fight in years while dropping bouts along the way to opponents perceived as lesser competition.

I think the UFC should do one of two things with Gomi from this point forward – either put him in the ring against fighters with similar status or put him in the ring against a series of strikers in hopes of rekindling his flame. The first scenario capitalizes on fading star-power and could deliver a few pairings long-time followers will appreciate. Though it’s unlikely Gomi will ever earn a rematch with UFC champion/icon BJ Penn, it would still be fun to see him take on other veterans associated with the Octagon like Sean Sherk or Spencer Fisher. The second scenario capitalizes on the Japanese fighter’s skillset and could re-build not only his confidence but name value by allowing him an opportunity to avoid grapplers. Opposition like Sam Stout or even a newly signed striker most folks haven’t heard of might bring out the best in Gomi while a loss or two on his feet would at least show the world his best days are further behind him than originally thought.

Tool: The benefit for having Gomi is pretty obvious: he’s got a name in a place where the UFC would like to go. Think of Gomi as Japan’s version of Chuck Liddell. He’s not the same dominant force that he once was, but he can still draw a crowd when needed. I mean come on, Chuck and Tito are going to headline a PPV when neither one of them has won a fight in the last two years. There aren’t many guys that can do that here in America, and with the dwindling MMA scene in Japan there’s even fewer guys that can do it over there. Gomi represents the UFC putting their foot in Japan’s door, now we’ll have to wait and see if they can make it inside the house.

Aside from his worthiness in the foreign business sense, Gomi is worthy of being on the UFC roster because he’s an exciting fighter. He was competitive in his bout on Wednesday night, and there’s a good chunk of UFC lightweights that I’d pick Gomi to beat. There may not be a second date with BJ Penn in his future but there are plenty of compelling match-ups to be made in the years ahead. Brendhan already touched on this as well, and his ideas for what to do with “The Fireball Kid” fall in line with my own. My pick for his next opponent? I say let’s have the second meeting of Gomi vs. Diaz, only this time with Nate Diaz in place of his older brother. Obviously the storyline is already built in, Gomi fights somebody that will almost certainly be happy to stand and trade with him, and Diaz gets a chance to try and beat a legend.

Who’s next for Jon Jones now that he’s handled “The Truth”? Will Jon Fitch get a rematch against Georges St. Pierre if both emerge victorious at UFC 111? Can Junior Dos Santos beat Brock Lesnar? Would Brandon Vera be better off exiting the UFC and taking his talents elsewhere?

Keyboard warrrrriors….come out to plaaaay-yay!

You’ve arrived (hopefully once again) at “Grappling with Issues”, a weekly buffet of insight-and-opinion featuring myself and fellow 5 Ouncer Adam Tool. The Mixed Martial Arts world is buzzing with activity of both the recent past and immediate future so let’s get to it, shall we? As always, Tool and I will be offering our thoughts on six subjects related to MMA. However, just because we staffers get the fancy set-up, please don’t feel precluded from dishing out your own thoughts on each matter in the comments section at the bottom of the column…

Has the time come for Brandon Vera to test his skills outside of the UFC?

Adam Tool: I don’t think so, at least not yet. By now it’s pretty clear that Vera will never crack through to the elite levels of the sport. It’s unfortunate that his career was so badly derailed, and I have to wonder what would have happened had he not sat out for a year while trying to get more money.

That being said, Vera is still better than a good chunk of light heavyweights fighting worldwide. There are some good fights left for Vera in the UFC and his name value hasn’t diminished to the point of a Tim Sylvia, so I see no reason why they can’t keep him around. Sure he’ll be stuck on the prelims fighting guys like Eric Schafer and Stephan Bonnar, but at least he’s still getting paid. I don’t think he’ll get better money fighting in smaller organizations, and he’s likely to get killed by Gegard Mousasi if he tries to make a jump to Strikeforce or DREAM. As long as they’ll have him, he’s best served staying with the UFC.

Conlan: Similar to Tool, I see Vera as an above average 205-pounder who hasn’t lived up to the potential many saw when he first came on the scene as a heavyweight. And yes, the UFC is without question the most financially stable MMA outlet on the face of the planet. However, where my road of opinion forks from Adam’s is in his belief that “The Truth” is better served by a role on the undercard or as a promotional gate-keeper, and I actually think a change of scenery could do the lanky Californian a lot of good in terms of re-establishing him as a legitimate threat.

The importance of a fighter’s mental state related to success/performance in the ring is well-documented. There have been multiple situations in Vera’s career with the potential for negatively impacting his psyche – increased pressure created by the contract dispute, breaking his hand against Tim Sylvia, suffering what he felt was an early stoppage against Fabricio Werdum, and dropping down to LHW to name a few. Brandon has shown flashes of the same brilliance he showed in his first five Octagon appearances but has yet to recapture it with any consistency. He had to rely on leg kicks to beat Michael Patt for Gracie’s sake! To hit an in-ring wall like that, in my opinion, is 100% mental and not a matter of how skilled he is/isn’t.

Leaving the greener pastures of the UFC for the still-emerald fields of Strikeforce might help take some of the weight off Vera’s shoulders and let him get back to simply fighting. Sometimes you need to turn off the brightest lights to find what you’ve lost. The promotion has a number of fresh, exciting match-ups for him, so it’s not as if his motivation in the gym would suffer any, and the move could even allow him an opportunity to compete alongside his wife, training partner, and undefeated 135-pound Strikeforce contender Kerry. A few wins could easily return Vera to prominence and, at worst, a loss to Mousasi or Lawal would looks a lot better than the possibility of dropping one to the afore-mentioned Bonnar or Schafer.

Oh, and as far as money goes, Scott Smith made $55,000 for his December 2009 win over Cung Le and “Jacare” Souza got $65,000 on the same card so it’s not like Vera would have to pick up a job bagging groceries to make ends meet.

Who would you like to see Ikuhisa Minowa defend his “Super Hulk” Championship against next?

Tool: How exactly does one determine the top contenders for the Super Hulk belt? I mean, it’s not like there’s any sort of rankings (or simple logic) behind the thing. Do they match up “Minowaman” with the biggest freakshow fighter they can find? Is Zulu still fighting?

If we’re going to try and find a compelling match-up for Minowa then I think the best option is to rematch him with a previous opponent so he can try and avenge one of his many losses. With the dwindling interest in MMA from the Japanese crowds, it makes the most sense to me for DREAM to put Minowa together with Kazushi Sakuraba. These are two of the biggest (if not thebiggest) names in Japanese MMA and with Sakuraba‘s limited shelf life it makes sense to do it now. In their first meeting these two traded submission attempts back and forth before Sakuraba got the win with just seconds left in the first round. A rematch between them would be one of the biggest fights DREAM could make at this point, and big fights are exactly what they need if they’re going to try and bring some interest back to their product. And hey, now they have the added bonus of making it a title fight.

Conlan: I support Tool’s nomination, as few fighters personify the word “superhero” more than Saku. I also appreciate his lack of venom because I’m pretty sure he hates the entire “Super Hulk” concept (which is a viewpoint I understand). However, I’m a sucker for a little Japanese silliness every now and then, and I encourage everyone to embrace the reality Mixed Martial Arts is as much an entertainment platform as an athletic one.

What my partner in crime fails to recognize is that the championship is all about little vs. big. While Sakuraba is certainly larger than life in a figurative sense his physical proportions aren’t in line with a crack at Minowa’s non-existent belt. As such, I’d like to see Tim Sylvia make his way to Japan and do his best to avoid a last-second submission at the hands of the PRIDE veteran. Tim-meh is large enough to provide a proper foe for Minowa, has little to lose at this point in his career, and loves championships! Winning the Super Hulk title would be ideal for Sylvia because he could constantly wear it without drawing attention to himself (because it’s invisible), and it might even get him a little more much-needed love from hardcore MMA fans in the process.

BUY/SELL – Junior Dos Santos can beat Brock Lesnar.

Conlan: How can my response be anything other than to “buy” the statement? Every respectable heavyweight in the sport “can” beat Brock and Dos Santos is certainly among them. The champ’s chin is relatively untested, and while his wrestling foundation is concrete-strong, his striking and jiujitsu departments are still under construction. He’s only fought five times in his career and was on the brink of retirement earlier this year due to a serious illness. To suggest the young Brazilian, can’t add another notch on his bedpost were the two to face off would be asinine. He has an arguably more impressive roster of fallen foes attached to his name than Lesnar and has looked exceptional in all five of his appearances in the Octagon. He has yet to see a decision in his twelve-fight career with four of his last five scraps ending in first-round TKO. “Cigano” hasn’t faced an opponent with Lesnar’s takedown ability, but has the stand up and knockout power to keep him at bay in addition to what I suspect is a pretty decent submission game off his back given his affiliation with “Minotauro” Nogueira. Would Dos Santos beat Lesnar if they faced off against each other? It’s hard to say. Can he? Absolutely.

Tool: I’ve got to go “buy” as well. We’ve yet to see the current heavyweight champion in the cage with a high-level striker, so there’s still questions left to be answered in that regard. I don’t know if Brock is physically able to be knocked out by anything other than a botched shooting star press, so I’m looking forward to seeing how he deals with the aggressive assault from someone like Dos Santos. It stands to reason that if these two were to face off Brock would likely shoot in right away to work from a more comfortable position, and we’ve yet to see exactly what Dos Santos’ ground game looks like as well. The way I see it, a potential Lesnar vs. Dos Santos match-up would force each fighter to work out of his comfort zone. Until I see Junior planted on his back for more than a few seconds, or I see Brock slugging it out with a real powerhouse, there’s no way to know for sure how the fight would turn out. All things considered though, I have to believe that Dos Santos very well could notch a victory over Lesnar.

Make your pick of Jon Jones’ next opponent from the following available fighters: Thiago Silva, Ryan Bader, or Luiz Cane.

Conlan: I’ve heard Bader’s name thrown around in relation to a future opponent for Jones but I think it would be a mistake to match the two young guns up at this point in their careers. The Ultimate Fighter Season 8 champion is immensely talented and appears to have a bright future but has yet to face the same level of competition as “Bones” or shown himself to be as dominant inside the Octagon. Jones is on the cusp of contendership while Bader still needs an impressive win or two before achieving such status. He would have everything to gain and nothing to lose were the two blue-chippers slotted against each other. Meanwhile, Jones would be risking his current aura of awesomeness against a guy whose biggest victory to date was a third round knockout against an opponent known for having a glass jaw. A win would slightly nudge him closer to a title shot while a loss would bump him down at least a few rungs on the light heavyweight ladder. I think these two are destined to eventually face off but not in “next opponent” terms.

Of the three names listed, I think Thiago Silva is the best candidate if for no other reason name recognition. Similar to Bader, Silva’s most notable dubya came against Keith Jardine, but at least said knockout was produced ninety-five seconds into the bout. He’s been to decision twice in his career while “Darth” has seen the judges’ scorecards in two of his last three fights. Silva is two bouts removed from being the division’s #1 Contender and recently took Rashad Evans, a former champion, the distance while almost sealing the deal in the third round before eventually losing via decision. He’s got excellent jiujitsu, documented knockout power, and a marketable look. Beating the well-rounded Brazilian would further establish Jones as being ready for one of the top 205-pounders (Griffin, Machida, Rua, Jackson, and Evans) while beating Bader in a few months would be a nice feather in his cap but a step backwards in his career.

Tool: I can’t argue with Brendhan’s logic, as I was leaning towards Thiago Silva myself. Silva is arguably the biggest “name” of the three fighters mentioned, so in terms of launching Jones towards the next level I see no reason not to make that fight right away.

I wouldn’t mind the Jones/Cane match-up either, but I feel like Cane is due for an easier opponent so he can try and get some momentum back. Jones vs. Bader is a fight that will have to happen sooner or later, as these two are the most likely candidates to represent the future of the light heavyweight division. For now though, I’d love to see “Bones” test his skills against an elite striker and no, Brandon Vera obviously doesn’t count.

How will the Interim Heavyweight Championship fight at UFC 111 end?

Conlan: It will end with the winner saying the title is meaningless and only by beating Brock Lesnar will he be the true champion. Oh wait, you meant the method of victory used to achieve the opportunity to diss the interim strap? In that case I’ll go with “knockout”.

Carwin should be looking to keep things standing based on his history of rendering opponents unconscious and knowledge of Mir’s jiujitsu, while the former UFC Heavyweight Champion has shown improved striking as of late and shouldn’t be afraid to oblige him for a few reasons. Though Mir has a significant advantage on the mat, I’d be surprised if throughout training he hasn’t thought back to his recent mauling at the hands of Lesnar. Similar to Brock, Carwin is massive human being with Herculean strength, a legitimate wrestling base, and above-average athleticism for someone with his size. The thought of absorbing a few shots from the cinder-blocks attached to first-round phenom’s wrists while attempting a takedown or being outmuscled on the ground has to be in the back of Mir’s mind. I can see it influencing he-who-hates-Brock to focus on outside striking and superior speed to take the fight into later rounds and test Carwin’s unproven conditioning along the way.

Tool: I am also of the belief that this fight ends with the referee stepping in to stop it due to strikes. It’s not hard to imagine Carwin knocking Mir out, as Carwin has brutal power and Mir has certainly been hurt badly before. I’m just wondering if it’s possible we’ll see the reverse? Keep in mind, Shane was rocked (briefly) in his fight with Gabriel Gonzaga. We also can’t forget that Mir has bulked up considerably in the last year, and the improvements in his boxing have been evident in that time as well. Does anybody think that Carwin’s first career loss could come as a result of a brutal KO from the ever-improving former champ?

Is it possible? Most definitely. Is it likely? I don’t think so. Carwin via MurderDeathKill, round 1.

Does Jon Jones deserve the hype? How many more fights does Junior Dos Santos have to win before he’s considered a contender? Who would be a better opponent for Rich Franklin? What does the future hold for Bellator? Finally, do you care at all about DREAM 13?

Another week means another round of questions up for debate between myself and Mr. Brendhan Conlan. We’re launching into a busy time for the mixed-martial arts world, with this weekend being no exception. We’ve got UFC on Versus 1 and DREAM 13 taking place on opposite sides of the world, each featuring their share of compelling match-ups. As always we encourage you to share your thoughts on this week’s topics by leaving a comment at the end of the article.

In the immortal words of Cecil Peoples…let‘s dance!

Is Randy Couture a more/less interesting opponent for Rich Franklin than Chuck Liddell?

Adam Tool: I’d say Couture is a more interesting opponent than Liddell, but that’s mostly on the basis of what the fight can do for Franklin’s career. I spent a good chunk of time last year lamenting Franklin’s fate, as he went 1-2 in 2009 in pointless fights with guys that are making their career at middleweight. Despite his decision to move to the light heavyweight division permanently Franklin was still stuck as a gatekeeper for Anderson Silva.

A fight with Couture gives Franklin the chance to finally make some waves in his current division. Couture has been surging since returning to light heavyweight himself, and he has a good chance of becoming a contender once again in 2010. Franklin can steal all of that momentum with a win over “The Natural,” and with his name value there’s no reason why he couldn’t shoot up the ladder of contenders quickly enough.

In terms of the fight itself I think Couture/Franklin could be a great match-up, although it’s also easy enough to imagine a scenario where Couture nullifies Franklin’s offense with the clinching strategy he used against Brandon Vera. Franklin vs. Liddell would be a great bout as well, if only because it’s essentially a guarantee that those two will stand and trade for the entire fight. Both fights have potential but I have to believe that Couture vs. Franklin is the more relevant match-up.

Brendhan Conlan: The last paragraph of Tool’s assessment does a nice job of summing up my opinion on this topic. While Liddell would have been beyond suitable, Couture is viewed as a more relevant Mixed Martial Artist at the moment because he hasn’t been knocked out in three of his last five fights and is riding the momentum from back-to-back wins. I don’t know that it’s necessarily fair to the “Iceman” to simply look at those stats, especially when comparing the level of competition each has faced over the last few match-ups, but facts are facts and perception is reality.

The pairing makes too much sense to have not been made. Franklin is at a point in his career where he should only be slated against recognizable and relevant fighters, while Couture was the one significant light heavyweight available to scrap in April/May. Both are considered to be UFC icons and have never stood opposite one another in the Octagon. Liddell may fit the same criteria but is going to be associated with the upcoming season of the Ultimate Fighter for a few months and is looking to climb back into 205-pound relevance – a far riskier prospect against an individual faring as well on his feet as Franklin typically does instead of one who prefers ground-and-pound to striking like Tito Ortiz.

Put on your jeweled turban, do you best Miss Cleo impression, and tell the world – Where will Bellator be as a promotion in 2-3 years?

Tool: As awful as my Jamaican impression would sound, I’m sure it would read even worse on a computer screen. Therefore I’m going to ignore that particular pop culture reference and just move on to the question. I leave any and all attempts at comedy to my esteemed colleague on this one.

Bellator is pretty much kicking all forms of ass right now, as the company has made enough unique moves with their presentation to get a lot of hardcore fans on board in such a short amount of time. While the UFC is stocking their YouTube page with Dana White’s backstage shenanigans, Bellator is posting tons of highlight videos from their first season of action. Bellator also took advantage of the online options available to them by posting entire episodes of their weekly show after it had aired on ESPN Deportes. Now they’re poised to capture an even bigger audience with their new TV deal(s) and the signing of former UFC star Roger Huerta.

Within the next few years I expect to see further growth from Bellator as the company is clearly heading in the right direction. They don’t appear to be going after the Zuffa empire (at least not directly) so they should remain out of Dana’s crosshairs for at least another year or two. If Bellator is able to make the transition to PPV then the game could very well change, but for now I see no reason why they can’t rise up to establish themselves as a premier alternative to the UFC.

Conlan: The only time I impersonate someone from Jamaica is on weekends and GWI is a family-friendly column so let’s move on. In terms of this topic, let me precede my prediction with a few comments about Bellator (and yes, if it feels like I’m about to break up with Bellator after telling it what a great personality it has and how I hope we can still be friends then you’re not too far off base). I have an enormous amount of respect for CEO Bjorn Rebney who I had the pleasure of meeting at one of last season’s events. He is personable, intelligent, and the primary reason Bellator has achieved the status it has in such a short amount of time. The tournament format, including the above-average pay days associated with advancement, is a thing of genius as is the promotion’s focus on drawing in fans from MMA’s relatively untapped Hispanic demographic.

Please don’t look sad, Bellator. You didn’t do anything wrong. It’s me, not you.

Perspective has to be kept. Two or three years is a long time for any new company to sustain itself or turn a profit in today’s economy, let alone an organization based on a sport still working towards mainstream acceptance. Even Strikeforce has struggled thus far to produce UFC-like numbers in ratings and ticket-sales with a roster of talent vastly eclipsing Bellator’s plus the backing of Showtime/CBS. Roger Huerta, who is by all accounts an outstanding human being and clearly a talented competitor, is also on a two-fight slide and hasn’t emerged victorious in a bout since December 2007 due to a long-lasting contract dispute. He adds oomph to Bellator but isn’t quite the draw he was after his awe-inspiring performance against Clay Guida at the Ultimate Fighter 6 Finale. To think Bellator will make an impact beyond being another smallish promoter putting together entertaining, intriguing match-ups every so often is little more than wishful thinking. It’s a great outlet for avid followers of MMA and will shine a positive light on the sport but an eventual “premier alternative”? I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t see that as being any more likely than screw-capped wine becoming as commonly accepted as corked wine. It’s a niche market for specialists, and so while enthusiasts know there is value and can appreciate the variety, lesser educated people will keep thinking Bellator is Ripple to UFC’s Dom Perignon.

Excluding the two headlining bouts, what match-up on the UFC’s Versus card are you most looking forward to?

Tool: Those two fights are pretty exciting, but I think we’ve got a nice opener lined up in the form of James Irvin vs. Alessio Sakara. Sakara has looked much more impressive since the drop to middleweight, although he wasn’t that great at 205 so the improvements have to be viewed with respect to that. There are more than a few question marks hanging over Irvin’s head right now, what with the 20 month layoff for injuries/suspensions and this being his first time at 185. We also can’t overlook the fact that his last fight was a severe clowning at the fists of Anderson Silva.

So even though neither of these guys is staring down the barrel of contendership, I still want to see this fight. Bottom line is that these guys are all but guaranteed to tee off on one another early and often. Neither man is known for his iron chin, but both have more than their share of (T)KO finishes. It’s likely to be a great slugfest and those always make for the best openers to a live event.

Conlan: I can’t say I’ve ever been a big fan of Sakara, but I appreciate where Tool is coming from in regards to his recent success at middleweight as well as his interest in how Irvin will respond after the layoff and drop in weight. The bout I’m looking forward to is also on the event’s undercard and features two likeable, talented individuals at different stages in their careers – Vlad Matyushenko and Eliot Marshall.

I’ve been a fan of “The Janitor” since he first stepped into the Octagon in 2001. He has been one of the most consistent, yet underappreciated, fighters of the last ten-plus years. Matyushenko has only been finished twice in twenty-seven professional fights while racking up a nearly identical number of knockouts, submissions, and decisions in the 23 wins he has. His four career losses came to Rogerio Nogueira, Andrei Arlovski, Tito Ortiz, and Vernon White while he’s beaten the likes of Pedro Rizzo, Tim Boetsch, Yuki Kundo, and the afore-mentioned White and Nogueira as well.

Marshall, on the other hand, hasn’t really beaten anyone of note in his career but has compiled an 8-1 record in the four years he’s competed as a pro. He’s got high-level jiujitsu, an arguably underrated stand-up game, and comes out of Greg Jackson’s camp meaning he’ll be fully prepared for the challenge supplied by his veteran counterpart in the bout. Marshall’s lanky frame should provide for submission attempts from the bottom if Matyushenko is able to take him down while his reach advantage could keep Vlad at bay if used properly. All in all in provides for an interesting fight and one I’m hopeful to eventually see on the televised broadcast.

What’s your take on the Jon Jones hype? Is it deserved, is he overrated, or is it too early to tell?

Conlan: The hype surrounding “Bones” is well-deserved based not only on what he’s accomplished in the ring but also how he he’s gone about doing it. There are other young fighters with similar records but none who possess Jones’ combination of athleticism, fearlessness, and raw talent. This is a guy who won his first four professional fights in a span of time not even equating a full month, is an accomplished amateur wrestler but uses his takedowns to deliver punishment rather than hold opponents down to grind out wins, and taught himself a number of the striking techniques he’s found success with inside the cage. His only loss is essentially the result of beating a guy up too badly in that Matt Hamill, who was already a puddle on the canvas when Jones went 12-6 with his elbow, likely wouldn’t have been able to continue regardless of the strike’s legality. Jones has faced legitimate foes in all four of his UFC appearances and looked sharp against the entire lot. He’s beaten a number of veterans while having been a professional Mixed Martial Artist himself for a little less than two years. It may be too early to say he’s destined to hoist promotional gold up over his head but the buzz surrounding the 22-year old buzz-saw is absolutely justified.

Tool: I have to agree with pretty much everything Brendhan said. It’d be much easier to dismiss Jones as being “over-hyped” if his record consisted solely of wins over shoddy competition. Andre Gusmao and Jake O’Brien aren’t world beaters, but they do have a combined record of 19-5 (with two of those losses being to Jones, of course). Stephan Bonnar and Matt Hamill were supposed to represent tougher tests for Jones but he dominated both opponents handily. I have no reason to believe that he won’t lay the same type of ass-whuppin’ down on Brandon Vera this weekend, and after that I for one hope to see “Bones” stepping up to some elite competition before too much longer.

If he gets past Gabriel Gonzaga this weekend, how many more fights will Junior Dos Santos have to win before he gets a title shot?

Conlan: Were Dos Santos in a deeper division I’d say he would need to beat at least two more ranked, respected opponents after Gonzaga before getting a crack at a UFC championship but, as he isn’t, I’d wager he’ll only need to find victory once more in the Octagon before a title shot arrives on his doorstep. Knockout power goes a long way in terms of selling a fighter to the public (especially a heavyweight) and the young Brazilian has certainly shown the ability to render his adversaries unconscious or unable to intelligently defend themselves. However, with Brock Lesnar’s next opponent already lined up (Carwin/Mir) and Cain Velasquez waiting in the shadows, there’s no question Dos Santos still has some work ahead of him before earning an opportunity at gold. If he beats Gonzaga I think the UFC has two options – either slot him against Velasquez to establish a clear cut top contender or give him the loser of Carwin/Mir, then re-evaluate the title picture in six months.

Tool: I’d say Dos Santos is the biggest victim of this entire mess in the UFC’s heavyweight division. If Lesnar had been healthy enough to keep his UFC 106 date with Shane Carwin, the winner of that fight would likely be preparing to meet Cain Velasquez in the very near future. As it is though there are already at least two guys in line for title shots ahead of Dos Santos, despite the fact that he’s already put away some big name opponents. Had Cain’s win over Nogueira not been so decisive I would probably get on board the Velasquez/Dos Santos #1 contender’s bout, but as it is I think Cain has already earned his shot and should have the luxury of waiting. I don’t believe Junior will be so lucky, as he’ll likely have to accept at least one more fight before he can get a spot at the top of the list. Ironically he would then be finding himself in a situation very similar to the one Fabricio Werdum was in before “Cigano” knocked him out of the UFC.

True/False – You’re excited about DREAM 13.

Conlan: Though I’m definitely interested in a few of the match-ups, I should probably say “false” because it actually took this topic to remind me about the event’s occurrence. Perhaps my brain is overloaded due to the number of UFC events taking place over the next few weeks? Regardless, two of DREAM’s most-intriguing athletes are competing for Strikeforce in April (Aoki/Mousasi), and none of the pairings at DREAM 13 are of a “must stay up until 6:00 AM and see live” nature. Don’t get me wrong. I’m looking forward to KJ Noons’ return to MMA and “Hellboy” Hansen giving featherweight a go against Bibiano Fernandes, as well as a few of the other names slated for the show. I enjoy the pageantry associated with Japanese productions, and I’m always happy to hear Michael Schiavello offer his unique stylings on the microphone. I’m just not particularly “excited” about the overall event.

Tool: Ah-ha! So you’re the one that’s excited about the return of KJ Noons. I knew there had to be someone out there…

I’ve got to go with “false” for this one. There are at least a few fights that I’ll try to watch online after the event but for the most part DREAM has been slowly sinking into irreverence for the last year or so. Their top stars are coming stateside to try and make a name for themselves in the U.S., and the lack of big-name talent on recent DREAM events has caused fan interest to reach an all-time low. When the company first burst onto the scene there was talk about them being the successor to PRIDE, but without those top fighters that called Japan their home for so long there’s little in common between the two companies (save for the outlandish production values and the crazy screaming announcer lady).

Are you excited or indifferent towards the UFC’s signing of James Toney? How do you think the UFC weighs the relationship between entertainment and sport? Has Miguel Torres lost his mojo? Will Strikeforce be looking for a new network to call home after their April event?

Keyboard warrrrriors….come out to plaaaay-yay!

Thank you for stopping by to check out another edition of “Grappling with Issues”, a weekly smorgasbord of insight-and-opinion featuring myself and fellow 5 Ouncer Adam Tool. As always, we will be offering our thoughts on six subjects related to MMA. However, just because we staffers get the fancy set-up, please don’t feel precluded from dishing out your own thoughts on each matter in the comments section at the bottom of the column…

Buy/Sell – After being finished in consecutive fights, Miguel Torres has officially lost his mystique.

Adam Tool: Buy. He’s still got the necessary ability to be a major player in the bantamweight division, but it was only a matter of time before someone recognized the holes in his game (namely his lack of takedown defense) and exploited them. These losses should motivate him to get better, and I think it’s safe to say that he’ll still be a challenge for any fighter that faces him.

I think this second loss only serves to open peoples’ eyes to the reality of the lighter weight classes; that is that they’re still sorting out who the top guys are. While the heavier weight classes have been competitive for many years with plenty of fighters making waves, the feather & bantamweight classes are only now really starting to get deep with talent. It may still be a few more years until we see a lower weight fighter achieve Anderson Silva-like levels of dominance in their division, but it will certainly be exciting to watch them get to that point.

Conlan: I agree with Tool, especially in regards to his latter sentiment regarding the notion that lighter weights are still behind their heavier counterparts in terms of overall development and the clear cut establishment of divisional dynamos. Other than overseas or on less-prestigious shows, there aren’t a lot of outlets for smaller fighters to make names for themselves beyond WEC. I think people in the media and fans (myself included) were a little overzealous in anointing Miguel Torres as the best out there simply based on his overall record without actually having a full understanding of his strengths and weaknesses. His mystique has been lost along with our innocence/ignorance due to the continued development of his peers and the increased exposure they’re now receiving. That’s not necessarily a bad thing either. It’s simply an indicator Mixed Martial Arts is continuing to evolve as a whole.

In regards to their WEC 47 performances, were you more impressed by Joseph Benavidez or Dominick Cruz?

Tool: I’ll go with Benavidez. I don’t want to take too much away from Cruz’s dominant performance against Brian Bowles, but we can’t ignore the fact that Bowles broke his right hand at the start of the fight and was visibly not the same afterwards. Personally I’m all for seeing Cruz vs. Bowles II down the road after Brian has had a chance to heal up and get back to 100%.

I didn’t give Benavidez much of a chance against Torres when the fight was made. I thought that Torres was too aggressive and the reach advantage would be too difficult for Benavidez to work around. Benavidez worked a solid gamelan, and was able to move inside quickly and fluster the former champion. The massive gash on Torres’ forehead seemed like it may lead to a doctor’s stoppage, but credit to Benavidez for locking up the choke and becoming the first man to submit Miguel.

Conlan: I’m also with Tool on this one, as I was extremely impressed by the rising star’s ability to overcome any nerves he may have been feeling before what was clearly the biggest fight of his career and ultimately get the better of Torres in such a dominant fashion. Benavidez was not just facing a former WEC Bantamweight Champion with a wealth of experience and polished arsenal of attacks but also one who was coming off the first knockout loss of his career. Going into the bout I thought Benavidez was simply a wrestler with a limitless amount of energy and a raw set of skills. To have handled the involved pressure, especially at his age, is telling of his future in the sport and, in my eyes, finally established him as more than simply being Urijah Faber’s protégé.

Using percentages, how would you assess the UFC’s approach to the relationship between entertainment vs. sport when delivering their product?

Tool: At the moment I’d put it around 70% sport and 30% entertainment. The various weight classes within the company are all still dominated by the top athletes in the sport, and the majority of their fight cards are filled with up-and-coming fighters looking to carve out their spot in their division. There are a few “freak show” fighters on the roster (one of which we’ll be taking more about in a future topic), but there’s still no questioning the UFC as the highest level of competition in the sport.

Conlan: I’d like to say there is a far greater focus on athleticism, ability, and performance in the ring than look, gift of gab, and even the slightest hint of former fame when it comes to the current state of the UFC, but James Toney’s signing is yet another reminder that Zuffa’s goal is to turn a profit even if MMA’s soul is sold in the process. Like Kimbo Slice, Toney was inked to entice the mainstream media into coverage and draw less-knowledgeable fans into spending cash. There are fighters who are far more deserving of a place in the UFC’s spotlight than either man based on actual accomplishment in the sport, yet lack the 15-minutes of fame each obtained prior to debuting in the Octagon and are thus relegated to relative anonymity.

I understand the point of running a business is to make money and can’t fault the UFC in that regard. Saying they’re good at what they do is a vast understatement. They are the Kleenex of Mixed Martial Arts. However, in regards to how they approach sport vs. entertainment I think the relationship is closer than Tool gave them credit for. You’re talking about a company that thrust Brock Lesnar into a title fight after going 2-1 as a professional Mixed Martial Artist and bypassed countless contenders over the past few years in favor of those who might potentially sell more PPV buys. 60/40 at best.

Without putting him in a rematch, who would you like to see Dominick Cruz make his first title defense against?

Conlan: Though Scott Jorgensen is probably the obvious choice given his three-fight winning streak in WEC, I also think Antonio Banuelos and Brad Pickett are deserving of some consideration. Jorgensen’s grappling and submissions certainly make for a legitimate threat to Cruz if things hit the mat, and his internal motor runs well enough to ease any concerns related to the twenty-five minute structure of a title bout, but Banuelos and Pickett have quite a bit more experience in the ring and a wealth of skills to utilize against the champ. Each has approximately twice as many professional wins as Jorgensen, yet the same number of losses, and both have found comparable success to Jorgensen in WEC.

If forced to pick one of the three options I’d go with Pickett based on him having finished fifteen of the eighteen opponents he’s beaten, not to mention his record shows the 18-4 Brit is as likely to knock someone out as submit them. He’s the most well rounded athlete in the bunch, trains with a great camp (American Top Team), and has won his last eight fights. The match-up would also be an easy sell to fans given the USA vs. UK angle involved and might even lead to an increase in WEC support across the pond due to the Londoner’s involvement. Call it the Michael Bisping effect if you will.

Tool: I have to agree with Brendhan in that Jorgensen is the most obvious choice, but it’s also worth noting that Jorgensen does have two losses in his WEC career. The two men that beat him, Antonio Banuelos and Damacio Page, are scheduled to meet one another at WEC 48 and I see no reason why the winner of that fight couldn’t be slotted in as the next #1 contender.

Pickett is also a good choice, although I do think he needs at least one more win over a solid opponent to be a legitimate contender. I say match up Pickett and Jorgensen and the winner of that fight would be a great choice to step up against Cruz.

On a scale of 1-10 (with 10 being the highest) how excited are you for James Toney’s UFC/MMA debut?

Conlan: I’m going with “4”, as it’s one point higher than how I rated my interest in Herschel Walker’s debut. In terms of seeing an over-the-hill athlete test the waters of Mixed Martial Arts I could care less, and similar to why I gave Walker a three, I’m definitely interested in the possibility of a message being sent through the mainstream media that MMA is a serious sport requiring whole-hearted dedication to a variety of combat disciplines. However, Toney’s boxing background and knockout power are well-documented, and as such he deserves a bit more attention than a former football player lest we forget the lesson we learned alongside two-time UFC Heavyweight Champion Tim Sylvia nine seconds into his 2009 fight with Ray Mercer.

Tool: I’ll say 2, and that’s being generous. Truth be told I didn’t even really know who James Toney was before he started his campaign to get in the UFC, as I’ve never really been a fan of boxing. He’s old as hell and has no MMA experience, which makes me wonder who the UFC can put him up against in a legally sanctioned fight. We all know he could easily knock out just about anyone he faces but we also know that he’ll be in way over his head if/when the fight goes to the ground. To me this whole thing seems to be a big step backwards in the evolution of the sport. The idea of taking a pro boxer and putting him in against a wrestler or jiu-jitsu expert just brings back memories of those single-digit UFC events that spawned the whole “human cockfighting” moniker more than a decade ago.

True/False – The next Strikeforce event will be their last for CBS.

Conlan: False, and if it is then the fault lies within the broadcaster more so than the promoter or sport. Strikeforce is offering an opportunity for fans to see top ranked fighters compete against each other on free television. There is little else they can do without more control over the station broadcasting the event. CBS, on the other hand, has dropped the ball thus far in terms of building up viewers’ interest in the show or Mixed Martial Arts in general. The UFC wasn’t an overnight sensation. Tens of millions of dollars were invested before the company ever turned a significant profit or became a ratings juggernaut. If CBS was expecting the same to happen to them without doing the legwork there is an executive or two who needs a stern reprimand if not a pink-slip. You can’t grab onto a speeding money-train without expecting your arms to get ripped off. You need to build up some momentum of your own beforehand, and that takes time.

To drum up the necessary casual interest, why not have Strikeforce fighters get some face time on CBS Late Night? Why not have them sit in the booth for a few minutes during a college basketball game or even during halftime programming? Why not create shows similar to UFC’s “Countdown” to help build interest in the bouts? You have an Olympic wrestler with a long list of MMA accomplishments (Henderson), a vegetarian who is also a single father (Shields), an outspoken All-American (Lawal), a humble pound-for-pound monster (Mousasi), a colorful, controversial jiujitsu wizard making his American debut (Aoki), and longtime Strikeforce staple coming off the biggest win in his career (Melendez). There are three title-fights on the card featuring fighters with a combined record of 123-19-2. If CBS can’t sell that to the public while the UFC/Spike are pulling better numbers with re-runs and guys who haven’t had a tenth of that success then they don’t deserve the right to show MMA.

Tool: True, although I suppose I’m a bit of a pessimist on this subject. Brendhan’s correct in his assessment of CBS’ role in the success of their live MMA events, but seeing as how they hold all the cards to determine whether or not the sport continues on their network I’m not keeping my hopes up. The simple fact of the matter is that CBS is one arm of a very large corporation, and the bottom line for them comes down to ratings. MMA events do outstanding numbers in terms of the most sought-after demographics, but on the whole the ratings for these events pale in comparison to other major sporting events. The upcoming Strikeforce card is absolutely stacked from a hardcore fan’s perspective but there’s little there to draw in that casual audience that they need so badly. When the biggest name on your card is Dan Henderson, that’s a problem. I’d love to see CBS put some promotional power behind the event, but even if they do it’s still not a card designed to appeal to your average fan that still calls the sport “ultimate fighting.” My estimation for this show’s rating is not good, and if it does do poorly I would imagine that CBS will cut their losses and step away from the sport until it becomes more widely accepted.

What’s the most exciting match-up in the month of March? Was Frank Mir out of line with his comments about Brock Lesnar? Will Dominick Cruz or Joseph Benavidez pull off the upset at WEC 47? Can Jens Pulver continue fighting if he loses to Javier Vasquez? Which Strikeforce Challengers prospect has the most potential? Does anybody still care about Paulo Filho?

The time has come once again for fresh debate on the hottest topics in mixed-martial arts. After a brief hiatus last week I have returned to face off with Brendhan Conlan, and this week we’re looking ahead to WEC 47 while also looking back at the big stories of the past few weeks. Unfortunately we got all our questions lined up before the news broke (right here at 5 Oz.) about James Toney signing with the UFC, but rest assured we’ll be chatting about that next week. As always you’re welcome to share your thoughts on this week’s topics in the comment box below.

In the immortal words of Cecil Peoples…LET’S DANCE!

Between these two “Strikeforce Challengers” prospects, who has the most potential – Tyron Woodley or Luke Rockhold?

Adam Tool: It’s always tough to judge fighters on potential. There’s no guarantee that either of these men will ever amount to anything in the MMA world, and at the same time they both may very well be world champions someday down the line. For pure athleticism it’s hard not to tip the scales in favor of Woodley. Many of the best fighters in the sport have come from that amateur wrestling background, so having that automatically puts Woodley in a position to succeed. While I won’t take anything away from Rockhold’s impressive win over Paul Bradley or his potential for future success, I am genuinely excited to see where Woodley goes from here.

I can only hope that both of these guys never fight on a Challengers event again. If Strikeforce is going to make any effort towards building new stars, they need to start putting young fighters like Woodley and Rockhold in the cage against more established fighters on their main cards. I can say that I’m honestly excited about the company’s upcoming event with 3 (or maybe 4) title fights, but sooner or later they need to start building their cards better so that the future contenders get some time to shine.

Brendhan Conlan: I’d say it’s currently a photo finish between the two where potential is concerned but give Rockhold a slight edge in the department based on the success he’s found against opponents with a smidge of name value. Beating Paul Bradley, Jesse Taylor, and Corey Devela in his last three fights may not be the stuff of legends but definitely indicates the American Kickboxing Academy product is ready for a significant step up in competition. He’s also exhibited an ability to set up strike-based finishes with his grappling – something Woodley has yet to do. With the depth of Strikeforce’s middleweight pool, like Tool, I think it’s time for Scott Coker to let Rockhold take the full plunge instead of just dipping his toes in the Challengers end.

Woodley, on the other hand, is still a bit less polished than his 6’3 counterpart and would probably benefit from at least one more fight/win against a semi-reputable welterweight before taking the larger stage. His athleticism and success on the mat in college can’t be denied, and he seems to have the raw talent to go a long way in the sport as long as he continues to hone his craft.

After yet another round of controversy, have fans seen the last of Paulo Filho as a relevant Mixed Martial Artist?

Tool: I think it’s fair to say that we saw that a while ago. It’s crazy to think that just a few years ago Filho was widely considered to be the #2 middleweight in the world behind his good friend Anderson Silva. It’s not hard to find the moment when he went off the rails, as the never-ending shenanigans surrounding his rematch with Chael Sonnen took a lot of luster off of Filho’s standing. The fight was made, postponed, and re-made several times, and then when it finally happened Filho missed weight and had nothing to offer in the cage. I’ve barely been able to sustain any interest in Filho’s post-WEC career, and a big part of that is because Filho himself doesn’t seem to be all that interested in his career either. I won’t speculate on his personal problems but I hope he’s able to get things sorted out, if for no other reason than to re-light the competitive spirit within.

Conlan: Yes, his best days are clearly behind him, and in retrospect I’m not sure he was all that great to begin with. I think his previous reputation wasn’t fully earned so much as heaped on him due to the relative infancy of MMA at the time and a degree of ignorance on the part of fans/media because of it (myself included). Blasphemy you say?

Filho, a powerful grappler with elite BJJ, has as many decision wins in his career as submissions. He couldn’t finish Gregory Bouchelaghem while in his PRIDE-prime and more recently went the distance with Alex Schoenauer. He’s been called out by peers for the use of performance enhancing drugs and shown the potential for substance abuse based on his stint in rehab and strange behavior in/out of the ring. His flip-flop-flip maneuvering at last week’s Bitetti Combat event was simply another indicator the fighter, who turns 32 in a May, is at a point in his career where he has to turn his life around or will likely fall into obscurity. Ultimately it’s a sad situation, as Filho clearly has the tools to beat any opponent on any night but has personal issues he needs to grapple with before locking up in the ring.

Who is more likely to score the upset win at this weekend’s WEC event, Dominick Cruz or Joseph Benavidez?

Tool: If I have to pick one of the two, my money is on Benavidez. I like Dominick Cruz a lot but I think he’s too slow of a starter to deal with an aggressive fighter like Brian Bowles. Bowles has been in there with some of the toughest guys in the bantamweight division and he’s come out on top every time, so I’ll be taking him to successfully defend his title on Saturday.

While I do think Miguel Torres should come out victorious this weekend as well, I like Benavidez’s chances of pulling off the upset. It’s been a little while since Torres was in a three-round fight, and all Benavidez has to do is win two of those rounds. Benavidez is a tough fighter with an iron chin, so he should be able to take what Torres dishes out. On top of that he’s got the wrestling skills necessary to dictate where this fight takes place. Like I said I’m putting my (hypothetical) money down on Torres, but I won’t be terribly surprised if Benavidez pulls off the upset.

Conlan: I understand where Tool is coming from but I think he’s underestimating the power of an angry mullet. Torres wasn’t just beaten by Bowles – he was rendered unconscious four minutes into the fight. You’re talking about a man with an incredible sense of pride who hadn’t been beaten in six years let alone finished in his career. If you don’t think Torres is killing himself in the gym and entering the cage with a ready-to-die mindset you’re kidding yourself. Benavidez scored a relatively easy win in his previous fight, and though I am 100% positive he is not underestimating the task in front of him, I think Torres is going to play both unstoppable force and immovable object at WEC 47 thanks, in part, to factors outside of the ring. If Urijah Faber’s protégé takes him down he’ll unleash elbows, work submission attempts, scramble, and tear a hole in the mat if that’s what it takes to get to his feet and work his stand-up. If he absorbs Torres’ punches then Miguel will use the other six points of attack to do as much damage as possible.

Obviously that means I think Dominick Cruz has a better chance of becoming the newest WEC champion than Benavidez does of beating Torres and stepping up to become the next contender to said belt. However, I don’t think Bowles is likely to fall – just more likely. Cruz will have to constantly be wary of being either taken down and avoiding Bowles’ Hendo-like right hand. Still, I like his heart and stand-up enough to say he could very well pull off the upset. He was able to out-point Benavidez in the bout earning him a title shot, so he’s proven he can hang with solid wrestlers, and he’s accustomed to knocking opponents out so striking is something he’s clearly comfortable with. If Cruz favors precision over power by avoiding heated exchanges, paces himself, and either stuffs or lands a couple takedowns he might just find himself with a new item to run through the Columbus airport’s metal detector on his way out of town.

True/False – Jens Pulver must retire from the sport if he loses to Javier Vasquez.

Conlan: False. Though it’s clear Pulver is a little less “evil” in the ring than he used to be, he remains one of MMA’s earliest stars and deserves to hang up his gloves when he wants to, not when the media calls for it. Yes, he’s lost six of his last seven fights but consider the level of competition he’s faced in each defeat. BJ Penn and Urijah Faber account for three of them. Josh Grispi is 13-1 while Leonard Garcia and Joe Lauzon combine for a professional record of 31-10. It’s not as if Pulver is getting dropped, submitted, or out-hustled by low-level opponents. Vasquez may not have a lot of name value, but he does have wins over Rumina Sato and Rob Emerson, so he isn’t some geek off the street simply because most fans haven’t heard of him. *IF* Pulver loses this weekend I think it’s a sign he needs to part ways with WEC but I would have no problem seeing the former UFC Lightweight Champion showcase his remaining skills in a smaller organization until deciding he no longer wants to fight.

Tool: True. I give Pulver tons of respect for the things he’s accomplished but at this point it’s getting harder and harder to take him seriously as a competitor. Brendhan makes a good point about the level of competition he’s had to face, and I’m sure he will be able to find a place to fight for as long as he wants to do so. However if he comes up short tomorrow night I believe he should step aside and let some of the younger guys have his spot.

As a side note I’d just like to say that if Pulver retires he absolutely needs to replace Frank Mir as the full-time color commentator for WEC events. Mir isn’t necessarily bad on the mic but Pulver really impressed me when he filled in last year, and he has the perspective of fighting at the smaller weight classes that the WEC specializes in.

The month of March is stacked with fight cards from the UFC, WEC, Strikeforce, DREAM, and Sengoku. Give your pick for the most anticipated match-up of the month.

Conlan: When the UFC in itself has three events in March, as well as the debut of the newest Ultimate Fighter season, I’d say “stacked” may very well be an under-exaggeration in terms of describing the month’s MMA-related activities. There are a plethora of competitive, interesting match-ups to choose from even if half of DREAM’s card won’t be announced until five minutes before the show, though I think the one I’m most anticipating is Takanori Gomi’s introduction to the Octagon courtesy of tour guide Ken Florian. I’ve wanted to see Gomi inside the famous eight-sided cage for some time now and I’m hopeful his signing helps facilitate a home for future UFC events in Japan. Drawing Florian as his initial opponent is certainly trial by fire for the “Fireball Kid”, but I can see the positive involved in the Fight Night pairing since a win will give him instant credibility amongst Zuffa Zombies and a loss won’t be too damaging since “Ken Flo” is considered one of the top 155-pounders in the sport.

Tool: I would probably have to say Florian/Gomi as well, but since Brendhan already talked about that one I’ll throw out another fight that’s got me excited: Junior Dos Santos vs. Gabriel Gonzaga. The UFC’s heavyweight division has quickly become the most exciting weight class in the company and this fight (along with Frank Mir/Shane Carwin, obviously) will certainly have an impact on the next wave of contenders. Dos Santos has already established himself as a dangerous fighter with TKO wins over Fabricio Werdum, Stefan Struve, Mirko Cro Cop, and Gilbert Yvel, and I firmly believe that he will challenge for the title within the next 12 months. Of course, that depends on him getting past the always-dangerous Gonzaga. While his time as a contender may have come and gone, he’s still got enough skill in all areas of the game to hand “Cigano” his first UFC loss. While both fighters are well versed in BJJ they each seem to prefer the striking aspect of the sport. As such I’m really not sure what to expect from this one, although I can pretty much guarantee it will be a lot of fun to watch.

What’s your take on the Frank Mir comment controversy? Was he out of line or was it blown out of proportion?

Conlan: A little of both I suppose. I think Mixed Martial Artists occasionally forget the impact their words can have, as the media attention on the sport increases daily, and the line between sports and entertainment is blurred with the roar every lavish entrance and salacious soundbyte produces.

It would be foolish to believe Frank Mir ever had any desire to literally kill Lesnar inside the Octagon. He himself is a husband and father; a successful businessman. Why would he sacrifice those things in hopes of becoming a murderer? He dislikes the UFC Heavyweight Champion on a personal level, is supremely confident in his abilities, and knows how selling a bout to the public can result in an increased payday. It’s as simple as that. Anyone who took or takes him to task beyond the relative ignorance of his trashtalk’s phrasing is either desperate for attention or what Kevin Federline would call a “hater”.

However, as stated, the way Mir approached the discussion on his rivalry with Lesnar was less than intelligent. MMA has been attempting to escape the stigma of an athletic endeavor populated by violent thugs and bloodthirsty bar-room brawlers since its inception. The last thing Mixed Martial Arts needs is Sarah Palin writing the words “human cockfighting” on her hand before making another public appearance.

Tool: Like Brendhan, I’m fairly certain that Mir has no intentions of actually murdering Lesnar. However I think a lot of the uproar the came about as a result of his comments has to do with the way he said it. BJ Penn said he wanted to fight Georges St. Pierre “to the death,” and Kenny Florian said he wanted to “kill that master.” Mir got much more specific when he claimed he wanted to break Lesnar’s neck, and he certainly didn’t do his employer any favors when he stated that he wanted Lesnar to be the first man to die in the octagon. The content of Mir’s remarks made this a much bigger deal than it really needed to be, and hopefully he’ll know better the next time he decides to speak on this subject.

Speaking of which, why the hell was Mir talking about Lesnar anyways? I’m not trying to go off on a rant here, but I’m dumbfounded that he would still be so focused on his “white whale” when he’s got an extremely tough opponent in Shane Carwin to prepare for. I think I’d be able to understand Mir’s comments a bit more if he were promoting the third bout between himself and Lesnar, but with that rubber match nowhere near a certainty Mir just comes off as obsessive and somewhat delusional.

Should Brock Lesnar be more concerned about Cain Velasquez than Frank Mir or Shane Carwin? Is “The Dean of Mean” on the UFC’s chopping block after losing another fight? How excited should Wanderlei Silva’s fans be after his performance against Michael Bisping? Will Joe Stevenson ever earn another opportunity at UFC gold?

Keyboard warrrrriors….come out to plaaaay-yay!

If you’re reading these lines you’ve made it through another work-week and are back in the friendly confines of “Grappling with Issues”, our site’s resident feature highlighting insight and opinion from around the Mixed Martial Arts landscape. My regular foil, Adam Tool, was too busy rebuilding Haiti, counseling Tiger Woods, and playing PS3 to contribute to this edition of GWI but rest assured his stylings will be back next week. Sorry, Elin, but that’s how we roll at Five Ounces.

Filling in for Tool is another familiar face, Dustin Zuch, whose items you may have seen ‘round these digital parts. As always, we will be offering our thoughts on six subjects related to MMA. However, just because we staffers get the fancy set-up, please don’t feel precluded from dishing out your own thoughts on each matter in the comments section at the bottom of the column…

With five losses in his last seven bouts, is Keith Jardine at risk of being released without an impressive win in his next fight?

Zuch:My first instinct says no. A win would certainly help, but it doesn’t necessarily have to be impressive. Despite the “The Dean of Mean’s” recent lacking track record, he still remains a solid challenger to any light heavyweight looking to make a step up in competition. Jardine may have a suspect chin but I think his wins over two former UFC champions in the recent years (Chuck Liddell and Forrest Griffin) stay in the minds of the UFC brass. That’s not to say he’ll get the Stephan Bonnar treatment though…

Conlan: Though I agree Jardine is a “solid challenger” for any 205-pounder I don’t think that necessarily means his contract is safe by any means. Yes, he beat Liddell and Griffin, but you’re talking about wins coming 2 ½ – 3 years ago and sandwiched between them was a devastating knockout loss to Houston Alexander. Do you know what else I suspect is also in the minds of UFC executives? The fact Jardine is 1-4 in his last five bouts, hasn’t finished an opponent other than Griffin since December 2005, and refuses to compete against Rashad Evans. Though Jardine may be a tough draw he also has quite a bit working against him in terms of drawing future checks from Zuffa without an immediate turnaround in the ring. A decision win in his next fight will likely buy him a stay of execution while an exciting finish certainly will. However, another loss – especially by knockout – and I think “The Dean” is definitely at risk of relegation to a Division II-level MMA promotion.

True/False – Joe Stevenson will never again fight for the UFC Lightweight Championship.

Zuch: True. I don’t foresee any more title shots for Joe Daddy. He will, however, remain as one of the most well rounded gatekeepers at lightweight. You can’t take away that vicious guillotine from him either.

Conlan: I’m hesitant to say “never”, especially since Stevenson is only 27, but in a division as deep as lightweight my confidence is equally lacking in terms of saying the Ultimate Fighter Season 2 champion will almost certainly fight for UFC gold again. He’s extremely talented, yet can’t seem to find consistent success against high level opponents. To that end I wonder if perhaps a sports psychologist would help him a la GSP, and with St. Pierre being one of his training partners at Greg Jackson’s camp in New Mexico it might behoove Stevenson to seek out his opinion on the matter. Stevenson has been dealing with more pressure than your average “Joe” for a long time. You’re talking about a guy who, amongst other things in his life, watched his father die of cancer while still a child, dealt with his mother being incarcerated, fought Jens Pulver professionally two weeks shy of his seventeenth birthday, and had both 35 fights and four children before the age of 25. If he’s a human being how can those things not have added some additional weight on his soul?

Which former Ultimate Fighter coach should be more concerned after losing last weekend – “Minotauro” Nogueira or Michael Bisping?

Zuch: As much as I hate to admit, Big Nog aka “Minotauro”, needs to start thinking about his future in the heavyweight division. His days of being able to absorb mass amounts of punishment and still chug on are wearing thin. He still is a top guy in the division, no doubt, but the Cains and Mirs will always give him trouble.

Conlan: I suppose I’ll say Nogueira due to age and the amount of punishment he’s absorbed over his career, but I also think Bisping is at a very interesting crossroads. “The Count” has been primarily known as a striker but looked apprehensive to engage Silva and ultimately came closer to la-la land than “The Axe Murderer” did at any point in the bout. He scored a number of takedowns and did absolutely nothing with him. Those things should concern him, even to the point of finding a new training camp, and if they don’t then I suspect his future in the UFC will consist of gate-keeping and acting as a draw in the UK.

Back to “Minotauro”, the PRIDE icon has been knocked out twice in the past three fights and hasn’t even come close to unleashing his BJJ mastery at any point in either bout. It’s also important to remember that not only was Tim Sylvia beating him up before pulling a “Tim-Meh”, but Heath Herring also left Nogueira on the cusp of consciousness in Rodrigo’s UFC debut. However, I am not going to jump the gun and say the affable Brazilian is finished or should be overly concerned about continuing to compete. He may have passed the proverbial torch to other younger fighters with less brain-rattling to their credit, but he’s absolutely good enough to be a part of the UFC’s heavyweight picture.

Facial differences not withstanding, is it safe to say the old Wanderlei Silva is back?

Zuch: Ok, let’s not get carried away here. The old Wanderlei is not back, but he is definitely rejuvenated and seems highly focused. I’m impressed with his decision to go back to his roots at Chute Boxe and improve upon them. His standup against Bisping was much more technical than normal and he wasn’t just looping wild punches. I don’t think we’ll ever see the Wanderlei from the PRIDE days again, but at least the new focused Wanderlei will have a good chance of succeeding in this middleweight division.

Conlan: It’s safe to say he was back for about thirty seconds of the Bisping fight but other than that, as Zuch referred to, Silva will never be the same fighter he was in PRIDE due to MMA’s unified rules and the UFC’s unwillingness to showcase him against tomato cans. However, though he may not be “The Axe Murderer”, he’s at least “The Hatchet Murderer” and a threat to separate any opponent from consciousness. I’m not quite ready to give him my endorsement in terms of finding a lot of future success at 185 pounds, because Bisping took him down at will and isn’t considered much of a grappler. Had “The Count” been Chael Sonnen or Nate Marquardt it might have been a much shorter night for Silva.

Does Cain Velasquez pose a bigger threat to Brock Lesnar than both Shane Carwin and Frank Mir?

Zuch: Cain proved against Big Nog that his standup game is scary good. Big Nog is arguably the most difficult guy to finish across any division and Cain made it look easy. Lesnar’s sheer size, strength, and power are also scary good. I’d really like to see how Lesnar would do against a guy most comparable to his size and strength, such as Shane Carwin. Ask me this question again after we see Mir vs Carwin on March 27 and I’ll have a better answer as to who is the biggest threat to Lesnar’s strap. Either way, I hope somewhere down the line we get to see Cain vs. Carwin. Jeez, I tackled most of that spectrum.

Conlan: Going into UFC 110 you wouldn’t have been able to bribe me into believing Velasquez was a superior threat to someone with Mir’s jiujitsu or Carwin’s size/strength but currently I’m taking offers. Velasquez has the grappling background to fend Lesnar off and exhibited precise, powerful striking against Nogueira. Randy Couture was able to put a few dents in Brock’s armor with a similar approach minus Cain’s intangibles (youth, knockout ability, progressive development in the gym, etc.). Why shouldn’t Velasquez be able to capitalize on the same flaws?

Out of the following “small” fights scheduled for this weekend, which are you most interested in – Yves Edwards vs. Derrick Noble (MFC), Glover Teixeira vs. Jeff Monson (Bitetti Combat), Trevor Prangley vs. Karl Amoussou (Strikeforce Challengers), Paul Bradley vs. Luke Rockhold (Strikeforce Challengers), or Sarah Kaufman vs. Takayo Hashi (Strikeforce Challengers)?

Zuch: Without even hesitating I can say that I am most intrigued by Rockhold vs. Bradley. Rockhold is a great grappler with solid standup skills and Bradley is known for his dominating wrestling skills. It seems as if Rockhold will be comfortable wherever the fight goes, but I think Bradley will definitely be looking for the takedown and sticking to what he does best.

Conlan: Call me a sucker for any pairing featuring veterans who are still competitive fighters if you must but I’m looking forward to the Canadian clash between Edwards and Noble moreso than the other bouts on the list. Though neither will be challenging for a slot in the “Top 5” at any point in the future, both will be looking for a third straight victory at the event and have emerged a winner in their careers more than twice as often as the opposite. They are also well-rounded competitors in the sense they’re each as likely to submit an opponent as knock him out. Though Strikeforce offers a number of intriguing match-ups, and Bitetti is interesting for a variety of reasons (some positive, some not so much), I suppose the long-time MMA fan in me has a certain level of investment in Edwards and Noble exceeding that of the other fighters listed. Add in the fact the winner is likely to have an opportunity to silence Antonio McKee on a future MMA card and it’s a wrap.

How long until Gegard Mousasi signs with the UFC? Is there any chance Michael Bisping and Wanderlei Silva go three full rounds? How probable is Mirko Filipovic’s retirement if he loses on Saturday night? Which UFC 110 heavyweight headliner will Brock Lesnar be pulling for?

Keyboard warrrrriors….come out to plaaaay-yay!

Another Friday on the cusp of a major UFC event, another edition of “Grappling with Issues” ripe with insight and opinion on a number of its participants. As is usually the case in GWI, Adam Tool and I will be discussing six savory subjects plucked from the MMA landscape. However, just because we staffers get the fancy set-up, please don’t feel precluded from dishing out your own thoughts on each matter in the comments section at the bottom of the column…

Other than “availability”, why was Demian Maia a good selection to replace the injured Vitor Belfort as top contender to Anderson Silva’s championship?

Adam Tool: Maia is a good fit because he provides an intriguing match-up. The striker vs. grappler paradigm has been brought up time and time again, but in this situation we’ve got the MMA’s greatest striker vs. (arguably) MMA’s greatest BJJ practitioner. People want to bring up the name of Thales Leites whenever Maia’s jiu-jitsu skills are discussed in the context of a bout with Silva, but it’s important to note the vast differences between Leites’ submission game and Maia’s. Maia has excelled at bringing the art of no-gi grappling into the Octagon, and he’s not the type of fighter to simply wait for an opening. He’ll shoot for takedowns, pull guard if he has to, and he always seems to be thinking several steps ahead of his opponent. The one weakness that Silva has shown in the past is his submission defense, and if anybody is going to take advantage of that it’s got to be Maia.

Conlan: I agree with Tool’s assessment of slick Brazilian’s jiujitsu prowess playing significant roles in both the UFC’s decision to select him as the replacement for Belfort and stirring up fans’ interest in the bout. However, I’ll even take it a few steps further.

Consider UFC 112’s location – Abu Dhabi, birthplace and frequent home of the ADCC Submission Wrestling World Championships. There is clearly an appreciation of high level grappling associated with the area, not to mention creator and recent Zuffa stakeholder Sheik Tahnoon is a blackbelt in BJJ under Renzo Gracie. Why would the UFC opt for anything other than a jiujitsu specialist like Maia?

Additionally, the match-up creates an ideal situation in terms of promoting Chael Sonnen’s eventual bid for the gold. If “The Spider” is able to maneuver through the web of Maia’s jiujitsu then little changes in terms of hyping the fight, but if Demian is able to somehow tap Silva out the UFC can then sell the fact Sonnen will be attempting to avenge the first round loss he endured to Maia at UFC 95 in February of last year.

True/False – Gegard Mousasi will be under UFC contract by the end of 2010.

Tool: False. I do believe Mousasi will make his way to the Octagon someday, but from what I have read it’s not likely to happen within the next 12 months. First off there’s some confusion online about the terms of his contract with Strikeforce, with some outlets claiming he has one fight left while Scott Coker is saying that they have Mousasi locked up for another year and a half. Mousasi also has plans this year in Japan, as he’s already expressed an interest in being a part of DREAM’s upcoming light-heavyweight tournament. On top of these MMA commitments Mousasi has also stated that intends to try his hand at boxing soon, and there’s also the possibility that he will look to compete in kickboxing again. These extracurricular activities are just the kind of thing that Zuffa frowns upon, as they won’t have Mousasi in their ranks unless they know they get to keep him there. Once he’s ready to commit full-time to MMA and face the challenges against the best fighters in the world, we will absolutely see Mousasi in the Octagon. Just don’t expect it to be anytime real soon.

Conlan: Agreed that 2010 is extremely unlikely, though I try to avoid the word “never” when it comes to Mixed Martial Arts. Regardless of how many fights Mousasi owes Strikeforce, competing in DREAM’s Light Heavyweight Grand Prix, as he’s stated he intends to do, is a commitment of three events which works out to at least another nine months. In truth it wouldn’t surprise me if the tournament’s final takes place on NYE meaning there’s no chance he’ll step into the Octagon before year’s end. However, I think any date after the event’s conclusion is fair game for the UFC to ink Mousasi unless either Strikeforce produces something substantial in regards to their alleged “year and a half” deal or the Dutch-Armenian encounters a massive losing streak over the next ten months. His interest in boxing and kickboxing don’t concern me, as I think he might be willing to leave both behind if earning the six-figure per fight salary he will likely merit from the UFC. Even at 24 he seems wise enough to understand it’s important to capitalize on his talents now in order to pursue other personal interests later in life.

Using a percentage, how likely is it that Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic will retire if he loses at UFC 110?*

Tool: 99%. I was pretty sure that Cro Cop would be calling it quits after the loss to Dos Santos, but obviously he’s proven us wrong by taking this fight. Therefore I can’t go the full 100%, but at the same time I don’t know how many more chances the guy is going to get. Rothwell is an interesting opponent, as he’s good enough to give Cro Cop trouble but not good enough to simply smash the Croatian superstar in no time flat. If Mirko loses this fight I cannot foresee a future where Dana White wants to keep him around. The only possible reason he would do so would be if the UFC is serious about putting on a show in Japan sooner than later, but those plans are still nowhere near being finalized.

Conlan: I’d like to bid 99% and one dollar (and apparently I need to come up with more polarizing topics based on the love-fest so far). The sliver of remaining percentage is reserved for the possibility Filipovic would have one farewell performance in Japan after getting pink-slipped by the UFC. Mirko is a proud individual and rightfully so based on his accomplishments both in the ring and in life. He doesn’t need to fight from a financial perspective and has other career options once he hangs his checkered shorts up. If he’s unable to defeat MMA’s upper-tier heavyweights, as has been the case for three years, what does “Cro Cop” stand to gain from continuing to compete other than further tarnishing his legacy?

* – This topic was addressed prior to Thursday’s news regarding Rothwell’s withdrawl from the card due to an undisclosed illness but safe to say the points made still stand.

Will the Wanderlei Silva/Michael Bisping bout end in a stoppage or a decision?

Conlan: I always approach topics like this with a bit of trepidation, as I’ve been burned numerous times before when the outcome to a particular match-up seemed pre-determined based on the styles of those involved. Fortunately, last month’s epic clash between Melvin Manhoef and Robbie Lawler helped restore some of my lost faith, so I’m feeling a bit more confident this go-round when saying I am almost certain either Silva or Bisping will be forcibly napping by night’s end. Neither man is known for his ground game while both are aggressive, prefer to strike, have less-than durable chins, and will be looking to impress in hopes of helping onlookers forget about recent losses.

As far as choosing the winner, I’ll leave that task to my peers both in MMA fandom and the written word here at 5 Oz., but I will say I’m very interested to see how “The Axe Murderer” fares. This will be his first fight at 185 pounds, so not only could weight be an issue in his performance, but a loss would be the sixth in his last seven fights (and the fourth by way of knockout if my initial “stoppage” prediction serves true).

Tool: I’m fairly confident in picking Wanderlei to win here, and I see no reason why he can’t put Bisping away at some point before the fifteen minute mark. We know that Silva can be one of the most aggressive strikers in the sport when he turns it on, and that will likely work in his favor if Bisping is slow to start (as he was in his last few bouts). I imagine that Bisping will likely look to work a strategy similar to the one he used against Chris Leben, and I would also expect him to be the one to take this fight to the ground if it goes there. Unless he can nullify Silva’s relentless pace, it will be a short night for “The Count.”

Given the fact that he will likely have to face the winner of the Cain Velasquez/Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira fight sooner or later, who do you think Brock Lesnar will be rooting for on Saturday?

Conlan: Can I say “neither”? I honestly don’t think Lesnar cares who he faces. I believe he is confident in his ability to the point he’d probably face the UFC 110 headliners at the same time if the paycheck was right, and only when the actual moment of defeat had arrived would the thought of losing enter his mind. However, it seems pretty logical he should be hoping for Velasquez’s continued ascension in the heavyweight ranks as a means of avoiding Nogueira’s arsenal of submissions, solid boxing, and proven durability. Cain’s wrestling base should surely be a far more appealing stylistic match-up for those in Lesnar’s camp than the well-rounded set of skills the iconic Brazilian brings with him into the ring.

Tool: I can’t argue with Brendhan, as I’m pretty sure Lesnar will be on Team Cain come this Saturday. Velasquez represents a much more even match-up for the champion, given the similarities in their size, skill, and experience. Nogueira is probably the worst match-up in the UFC for Lesnar, as the submission game is liable to remain the biggest hole in Brock’s skillset for awhile.

I will say this though: between this fight, Carwin vs. Mir, and the summer return of Lesnar, the UFC’s heavyweight division is the most intriguing weight class in the world right now. I am genuinely excited about all of the potential match-ups to be made in 2010, and I believe that the renewed energy of the heavyweight division will carry the UFC to more record numbers in the coming year.

Do you agree with the oddsmakers’ decision to make Ryan Bader the favorite over Keith Jardine?

Conlan: No, though he isn’t heavily favored and Jardine is coming off consecutive losses, so I can’t say the line is terrible either. It should be a close fight between two comparable competitors at different stages in their respective careers. Bader has the wrestling advantage on Jardine, but “The Dean of Mean” trains with some excellent grapplers at Greg Jackson’s training center so he should be prepared for the All-American’s takedowns. He’s also got those wicked leg-kicks to keep “Darth” at bay. On their feet I like Bader’s power, especially when considering the “Off” button apparently hidden underneath Jardine’s goatee, but I think Keith’s speed and awkward stance are going to prevent the ASU product from finding any rhythm or landing a knockout shot. It’s also worth considering that this is Bader’s biggest fight to date while Jardine is coming off a string of bouts against a number of 205-pound stars. The experience factor can mean a lot in terms of the mental aspect each man brings with him into the ring. For that reason, and because I like Jardine’s ability to avoid punishment while dishing a decent amount out of his own, I think he deserves to be a slight favorite over Bader.

Tool: I can’t fault the guys in Vegas for putting Bader in as the favorite, as he’s still undefeated while Jardine has dropped four of his last six. I like Bader to come out ahead in this one, mostly because I can’t really figure out how Jardine would win. We know he loves the leg kicks, but is he really going to be able to throw that many of them before Bader shoots in and takes this fight down? Like Brendhan said Jardine has plenty of guys to train with in order to avoid the takedowns, but in all fairness those are the same guys that Nate Marquardt had to train with. I wouldn’t want to draw too many comparisons between Bader and Chael Sonnen, but anyone that follows the sport knows that these are the guys that are on another level in terms of wrestling ability.

It’s fair to say that Bader will be the one dictating where this fight takes place, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him keep it standing. We all know about the durability of Jardine’s chin and while Bader may not have the most technical striking, he does throw all of his power behind almost every punch. Bader could ride out a decision without too much trouble, but I’m fairly certain that we’ll see “The Dean of Mean” on the wrong end of another spectacular knockout.